By the year 2050, the people living in Shumensko will decrease by nearly 30,000 people, which is as much as 19.3% of the population of the district at the moment. This shows the most probable demographic forecast according to the National Statistical Institute /NSI/.
They have developed from NSI 3 scenarios for the population. The realistic one complies with the normative requirements of the European Union for the demographic and socio-economic development of the member countries. The other two scenarios were developed under the hypotheses that the demographic development will take place during favorable and, respectively, unfavorable socio-economic processes in the country.
As of January 1, 2023, the population of Shumen region is 149,628 people. According to the realistic scenario by the end of 2025 it will decrease to 145,058 people, by 2050 to 120,646, and in 2090 it will melt to 102,199 people.
The optimistic scenario of NSI says that in 2025, 145,281 people will live in Shumensko, in 2050 – 126,021, and in 2090 – 107,702.
According to the “black” forecast according to the national statistics for the Shumen region, in 2025 the inhabitants will be 144,954, in 2050 they will decrease to 118,037, and in 2090 they will be below the 100,000 mark – only 98,418.
NSI specifies that demographic forecasts are formal calculations that are carried out on the condition that certain assumptions about the future development of birth rates, death rates and migration are accepted. They give an idea of the possible future development of the population during the forecast period.