Bulgaria does not know what is going on with its acceptance into the Eurozone, writes “Politico”

Bulgaria was preparing to become a member of the eurozone from January 2025, but at the moment it does not know what is happening with this goal, writes the Brussels publication “Politico”. It lists it as almost certain not to happen on that date because of “political turmoil, stubborn inflation and lackluster public support, due in part to Russian influence.”

Here is part of the article:

Affected by rising prices

Joining the eurozone is a typically EU arcane process where countries are assessed by the European Central Bank before EU finance ministers, MEPs and heads of government discuss the matter.

The “convergence criteria” a country must meet to qualify include a stable exchange rate, meeting government deficit and debt ratio targets and bringing national legislation into line with EU law.

The next ECB report on Bulgaria, which will determine whether it is ready to join, is expected before the summer.

Inflation remains a problem. To join, Bulgaria needs average inflation of no more than 1.5 percentage points above the level of the three “best performing” EU countries – a vague category that creates a gray area about the exact amount of inflation needed. The most recent country to join the EU in 2023, Croatia, benefited from selective data selection when it was allowed to join despite the higher rate, Politico points out.

“The only obstacle for Bulgaria is the inflation criterion. It is in a good budgetary position – low public debts, budget deficits under control”said senior research fellow at the Brussels-based economic think tank Bruegel Jolt Darvash.

According to him, the country’s current inflation forecast of 2.9% in 2025 suggests that Bulgaria could join in 2026. He added that there is “some room for manoeuvre” on whether the same gray area that allowed Croatia to join in 2023 could be used to shorten Bulgaria’s accession deadline, but added that this should be justified.

Aside from the results of taming inflation, Bulgaria is in a relatively strong position to join the eurozone, several experts and officials told Politico. Last month, Bulgaria also received approval from the eurozone countries, when their heads of government praised Bulgaria’s progress.

But despite the EU’s sustained public support for the January 2025 target, senior officials admit it almost certainly won’t happen. As one of them says: “It is out of the question”, writes the international edition “Politico”.

At the end of last week, another publication – Euractive, wrote that it is more likely that Bulgaria will adopt the euro at the end of 2025 than at the beginning of next year.