Disinformation paid for by Russia is among the reasons for the decreased public support in Bulgaria for the adoption of the euro.
This is what “Politico” writes in articlein which he explains why our country will almost certainly not enter the Eurozone on January 1, 2025. The publication refers to senior EU representatives.
“Still, I believe that the majority of Bulgarians would prefer to be part of the Eurozone. I don’t blame Russian propaganda alone. Yes, it exists. But in general, those who are delaying things are the Bulgarian politicians”states the Bulgarian socialist MEP Petar Vitanov.
The “Politico” article begins with the visit to our country of the chairman of the Eurogroup, Pascal Donahue, in March.
“I am fully convinced that Bulgaria will enter the eurozone in 2025. The question is when your country will introduce the euro. didn’t”he said then, choosing his words carefully.
He spoke in the presence of the Prime Minister, the Deputy Prime Minister and the Foreign Minister. Only a month later, the Bulgarian government is no longer there, and the three ministers have been swept away. Donahue’s visit came at an inopportune time, the publication points out.
Experts and politicians with whom “Politico” spoke are convinced that the goal of Bulgaria’s entry into the Eurozone on January 1, 2025 will not be met. This will happen not only because of political upheaval, but also because of persistent inflation and lack of public support.
“We are in the midst of a political crisis. We really don’t know what the next Bulgarian government will be and whether this will be one of its priorities”says Petar Vitanov.
Even before the fall of the government, the country signaled that it might miss the originally stated date. In January, Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov declared that it is not sacred. Bulgaria originally planned to join in January this year, but had to postpone the event by a year because it still did not meet the membership criteria.
A more realistic entry date is January 2026 at the earliest, given the technical challenges of changing the national currency. This is what Chintsia Alcidi from the Brussels Center for the Study of European Politics (CIEP) thinks.
Some Bulgarian political leaders, including the governor of the BNB, allow this to happen in mid-2025 if the January 1 target is not met.
But officials and experts involved in the technical aspects of accession told Politico that a mid-year entry is atypical. Countries usually join at the beginning of the year for administrative reasons.
Bulgarian MEP Eva Maydel from the European People’s Party (EPP) says she is optimistic about entry in 2025, and adds that it could be on January 1 or later.
Joining the eurozone is a process where countries are assessed by the European Central Bank (ECB) before EU finance ministers, MEPs and heads of government discuss the matter.
The next ECB report on Bulgaria, which should determine whether it is ready, is expected before the summer.
Inflation remains a problem. For Bulgaria to join, it must not exceed the three best performing EU countries by more than 1.5 percentage points. This is a vague category that creates a “grey area” for the exact inflation figure. Croatia, the last country to join, benefited from some selective data and was allowed to enter the Eurozone despite higher inflation.
“The only obstacle before Bulgaria is the criterion for inflation, – commented Jolt Darvash from the Bruegel think tank in Brussels. – It is in a good budgetary position – low public debt, controlled budget deficit.”
According to him, the current inflation forecast of 2.9% in 2025 shows that the country could enter the eurozone in 2026. However, Darvash adds that there is room for maneuver and the “gray zone” that allowed Croatia to join in 2023, to be used to shorten the deadline for Bulgaria. But this must be justified.
In theory, Bulgaria will ask the ECB for a new report on convergence towards the end of the year. Inflation would be low enough for the country to join by mid-2025. But officials involved in the technical process doubt that can be achieved.
Among the Bulgarian political class, entry into the Eurozone is an easy sell. However, it seems that the public will hardly be convinced of this, Politico writes.
According to a Eurobarometer survey last year, Bulgarians showed lower-than-average EU support for accession and higher-than-average concerns about issues such as abuse of transition pricing.
Russian-funded disinformation also contributes to this unpopularity.
However, some experts believe that Bulgaria is in a relatively strong position to join the Eurozone. For example, the lev is tied to the euro. Concerns about the accession deadline haven’t stopped the likes of Donahue from beating the drum. A month ago, eurozone finance ministers praised the country’s progress.
However, some representatives told Politico on condition of anonymity that accession almost certainly will not happen on January 1, 2025. And according to one of them, there is no doubt about that at all.
