The target date of January 1, 2025 for Bulgaria’s accession to the Eurozone will not be met – not only because of the political turmoil in the country, but also because of constant inflation and the lack of public support. This is stated by Politico, citing their sources.
January 2026 “at the earliest” would be more realisticgiven the technical challenges associated with the transition to a national currency, according to Cinzia Alcidi, senior research fellow at the Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS).
“Convergence criteria”which a country must meet to qualify, include having a stable exchange rate, meeting government deficit and debt ratio targets, and aligning national legislation with EU law.
“The only obstacle for Bulgaria is the criteria for inflation. It is in a good budgetary position – low government debts and budget deficits under control,” commented Jolt Darvas, senior fellow at the Bruegel Economic Analysis Center.
To join, Bulgaria needs an average of no more than 1.5 percentage points above the level of the three “best performing” EU countries. The most recent member, Croatia in 2023, benefited from some selective data, allowing the country to join despite its higher percentage.
Inflation in March fell to 3% on an annual basis
Monthly inflation is 0.2 percent
“The current inflation forecast in Bulgaria of 2.9% in 2025 would “suggest that Bulgaria could join in 2026,” Darvas also pointed out, adding that there is “certain room for maneuver” whether the same gray area, which allowed Croatia to join in 2023, could be used to shorten Bulgaria’s accession timetable, but this “must be justified”, he added.
ECB report on Bulgariawhich will be decisive for the country’s accession, expected before the beginning of summer. Additionally, the Bulgarian government is expected to request a new convergence report towards the end of this year, which will contain data on sufficiently low inflation. However, it is not certain whether this is feasible.
Joining in the middle of the year would be atypical. States typically join at the beginning of the year for administrative reasons, according to Politico sources involved in the technical aspects of joining.
The adoption of the euro makes nearly half of Bulgarians feel insecure
The topic continues to divide society
According to last year’s Eurobarometer data Bulgarians express lower than average support for accession and higher than average concern about issues such as unfair pricing during the transition.
We recall that initially the intention was to join the Eurozone at the beginning of 2024. This had to be postponed, as some criteria had not yet been met.
On March 15, then Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov and Foreign Minister Maria Gabriel met with Irish Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform Paschal Donohoe. He was optimistic that “Bulgaria will join the eurozone in 2025. The question is when your country will introduce the euro as its currency. Not if.”
The lev has been tied to the euro since 1999, while Bulgaria has been in the EU’s banking union since 2020. According to MEP Meidel, these actions show a “very, very clear commitment” to joining. A number of member states expressed approval last month for Bulgaria to join, including the Netherlands, Germany and Greece.
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