Bulgaria will not be able to join the Eurozone on January 1, 2025. This is what experts and politicians have told Politico, which published an article about our country’s bid to adopt the euro as its national currency.
Bulgaria will not be able to join the currency union at the beginning of next year, not only because of the political turmoil in the country, but also because of the “stubbornly” high inflation, as well as because of the lack of public support for adopting the euro. This publication in an article entitled “Bulgaria cannot have joined the Eurozone in January. Here’s why”.
It would be more realistic for Bulgaria to become part of the Eurozone “at the earliest” in January 2026, given the technical challenges involved in switching from one national currency to another. This is stated by Cintia Alcidi, who is a senior researcher at the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS).
A number of representatives, including the governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, Dimitar Radev, emphasize the prospect of Bulgaria joining the Eurozone in mid-2025, if this is not achieved in January next year.
Specialists and experts who are responsible for the technical aspects of the process of adopting the euro as a national currency have described to Politico as atypical the possible accession of Bulgaria to the eurozone in the middle of the year. Countries usually join at the beginning of the year for administrative reasons, experts note.
Bulgaria originally intended to join the eurozone in early 2024, but had to postpone that goal by a year because it still did not meet the criteria for joining in early 2023, Politico said.
“I am firmly convinced that Bulgaria will join the eurozone in 2025. The question is when your country will introduce the euro as its currency, not whether (it will introduce it – note ed.)”. This was stated in Sofia by the chairman of the Eurogroup (the group of finance ministers of the eurozone countries), Pascal Donahue, in Sofia, quoted by “Politico”. The purpose of his visit to Bulgaria was to increase support for the country’s “hesitant bid” to become the 21st country to adopt the euro as its national currency, the article states.
Inflation is a problem
Joining the eurozone is a typical European Union process in which countries are assessed by the European Central Bank (ECB) before EU finance ministers, representatives of the European Parliament and leaders of EU countries discuss the issue, Politico notes.
The “convergence criteria” that a country must meet to meet the requirements to join the eurozone include a stable exchange rate for its national currency, meeting targets for the budget deficit and the government debt-to-GDP ratio, and bringing national legislation into line with EU law.
The next ECB report on Bulgaria, which will determine whether the country is ready to join, is expected before the summer, the publication states.
In order to join the Eurozone, Bulgaria must achieve an average inflation of no more than 1.5 percentage points above that of the three “best performing” (in terms of this indicator) EU countries.
This is vague wording that does not specify the exact level of the inflation rate a country must achieve to meet this criterion, the article notes.
“The only obstacle for Bulgaria (to join the Eurozone – note ed.) is the inflation criterion”. This is stated by Zholt Darvash, who is a senior researcher at the Bruegel Institute of Economics in Brussels.
According to him, the country is “in a good budgetary position”. Bulgaria’s public debt is low, and its budget deficit is under control, notes the economist.
The current forecast, according to which the average level of inflation will reach 2.9 percent in 2025, “suggests that Bulgaria can join (the eurozone – note ed.) in 2026,” notes Darvash.
He said there was “some room for manoeuvre” in relation to the vague wording on the specific level of inflation to be achieved. This creates an opportunity for Bulgaria to accept the euro as a national currency faster, but the country must use it “reasonably”, the expert points out.
Russian disinformation
The Politico article states that there is political will in Bulgaria to join the Eurozone, but it turns out that it is much more difficult to form a positive public opinion on this issue.
A Eurobarometer survey from last year indicates that Bulgarians demonstrate lower than EU average support for joining the eurozone. Respondents to the survey expressed a higher-than-EU average concern that adopting the euro as a national currency could lead to speculative price increases.
High-ranking EU officials have told Politico that Russian-sponsored disinformation has contributed to these sentiments among Bulgarians.
The publication notes that Bulgaria’s accession to the Eurozone in January 2025 is officially supported by the countries of the currency union. In practice, however, senior officials have informally indicated that this goal will almost certainly not be achieved.
“That is out of the question,” said one of these representatives, quoted by Politico.
