Political scientists revealed what will happen to GERB’s lead over PP

Political scientists revealed what will happen to GERB’s lead over PP
Political scientists revealed what will happen to GERB’s lead over PP

The sociological survey published yesterday by “Trend” shows a 5% lead for GERB over “We continue the change” in the upcoming early parliamentary elections on October 2.

“Probably this lead will hold because for several months the gap has been increasing rather than closing. That is not the most important thing – how big the gap will be. What is surprising is the high percentage of people, over 60%, who want to formed a government,” political scientist Tsvetanka Andreeva commented to “Bulgaria on Air”.

She emphasized that all parties want to govern and not be in opposition.

“DPS and “Vazrazhdane” are mobilizing their structures. They wanted early elections. We heard the leader of “Vazrazhdane” say that if they do not get the result they want, they will go to the next early elections, which will destabilize the political situation. The good news is that everyone wants to rule, but they don’t know how to rule together, and they will have to,” Andreeva is convinced.

Her colleague Prof. Rosen Stoyanov does not expect a different election campaign than the previous ones, as well as a different result.

“The players are the same in order to create a more stable coalition. GERB, regardless of whether and by how much it will win, it is unlikely that it will be able to form such a coalition to govern. It does not matter who is first, but who will be able to form a majority of 121 and more deputies in order for the government to be sustainable,” said Prof. Stoyanov.

He defined the ultimatum for negotiations with GERB, if Borisov withdraws, as “a military front, not a red line”. But he is adamant that this will not change and the path of diplomacy and compromises must be followed.

“Not only is a spiral of elections possible, there will be pressure on elections – next year local, next year European. And probably ITN will be able to collect signatures for a referendum. We need to look for an opportunity to have a purely human conversation, otherwise it demotivates the voters even more and we will have great potential for new political projects,” said the political scientist.

And Tsvetanka Andreeva emphasized the need for the parties to take responsibility after the elections. “It is important that they be able to form a government. Otherwise, they will compromise themselves above all. They must know that anyone who fails the opportunity to form a government will take all the damage if they lead the people to another election,” specified Andreeva.

She sees the future of “Continuing the change” as that of ITN – winning one election, failing to govern, another election and after a second failure – a struggle to pass the 4% barrier to enter the National Assembly in subsequent elections.

“The probability, if they fail to form a government, that a new entity will appear on the ground to steal the protest vote is huge,” she added.

Both were categorical that the country does not need a Grand National Assembly and a change to the Constitution to become a presidential republic.

“I don’t see Slavi’s experience as something innocent. He is trying to take advantage of Radev’s image, presenting himself as close to him, in order to pass the electoral threshold. It is dangerous to be underestimated,” commented Andreeva.

The article is in bulgaria

Tags: Political scientists revealed happen GERBs lead

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