Is a ‘red’ wave coming to the US?

Is a ‘red’ wave coming to the US?
Is a ‘red’ wave coming to the US?

The upcoming midterm elections in America on October 2nd are charged with enormous intrigue

Forecasts are for a certain advantage in the number of voters for the Republican Party

Against the background of the boredom and the sense of stalemate, which, unfortunately, surrounds the Bulgarian parliamentary elections, scheduled for October 2, the upcoming midterm elections in the USA are charged with enormous intrigue. The victory of Donald Trump in 2016 re-ideologized the American election and wrenched the Republican Party from the symbiosis of neoliberalism, neoconservatism and neo-Marxist progressivism that for more than three decades, from Reagan to Trump, had practically unified the two leading American parties, so that they they differed as much as Coca-Cola and Pepsi – only in shades. In other words, it now matters increasingly which party holds the reins of power in Washington in terms of the great value dilemmas and political rifts in the modern world.

This makes the regular US midterm elections on November 8th particularly interesting and important. They are traditionally located in the middle of the presidential term and are part of the guarantees to balance the complex structure of the American political system at the federal and state level in accordance with current public moods and attitudes.

At the federal level, there will be a vote for the full composition of the lower house of Congress, which consists of 435 deputies, as well as for 35 of the hundred senators in the upper house. At the state level, there will be voting for governors (the state equivalent of the federal president, as the bearer of executive power) in 36 states and 3 overseas territories.

State legislatures will also be elected – all bicameral, with the exception of Nebraska, which has a total of 1,972 state senators and 5,411 state representatives. Along with them, on November 8, a number of states will also elect secretaries of state, attorney generals and other government positions. It will also not vote on a number of referendums, most notably on the issue of abortion, which the US Supreme Court has returned to the jurisdiction of the individual states, as required by the constitution.

State governments are important because, under the federal constitutional model, the individual states retain all of their sovereign rights except those they have ceded to the federal government with the federal constitution. Much of the legislative and executive regulation of the economy, education, state taxes, ecology, public policy, etc. is within the purview of the individual states, and most states have their own identity, historical self-esteem, social and value differences compared to the rest. Currently, the executive branch, i.e. the governors in the majority of the states are from the Republican Party – 28 states, and in the remaining 22 states – from the Democratic Party. In addition, in 22 states, the entire legislature and executive—both governorships and majorities in both houses of the state legislature—are Republican. These states are home to more than 137 million people, which is 41.8% of the US population. In 15 states, the government is completely dominated by the Democratic Party – in them live a little more than 111 million people, that is, 33.9% of Americans. And in the remaining 13 states, power is divided in a different configuration between the two parties – almost 80 million Americans live in them, i.e. 24.3% of the population.

It can be seen that the largest part of the population lives in solidly “red” states, dominated entirely by the Republican Party, which has majorities in both houses of the state legislature and has fielded the governor. Expectations are that after the elections on November 8, this picture will be preserved and the Republicans will reaffirm the confidence of the voters.

As for the federal Congress, there the battle is highly contested and with an as yet unclear outcome. What should be known is that according to an unwritten political tradition in the USA, which can also be seen as a public reflex against the excessive concentration of power in one party, respectively – the president, in the midterm elections a majority in Congress usually wins the opposition party.

Only twice in the last hundred years has the president’s party won a majority in both houses, three times has it won only the Senate but lost the lower house. We also had such an exception during the mandate of the 45th president of the USA – Donald Trump, when in the 2018 midterm elections the Republicans retained control of the Senate and even expanded their majority.

What will happen on November 8? At this stage, polls predict a certain advantage in the number of voters for the Republican Party. However, the complex electoral geography and electoral system make it difficult to give an unequivocal answer as to whether this advantage will materialize into a majority in both houses. It is entirely possible that the Republicans will win more seats in the lower house and that the current parity will be preserved in the Senate. Analysts in the US are divided – some believe that the poor economic situation, the FBI crackdown on Trump and President Biden’s infamous speech the other day in which he declared Trump supporters and Republicans a “threat to democracy” will cause a “red wave” and Republican majorities in both houses. Others are more cautious and predict a very fragile Democratic majority in the lower house and parity in the upper house.

In any case, after the dramatic presidential election in 2020, for Republicans, the midterm vote also has an important psychological meaning. With Trump expected to completely take over the Republican Party — nearly all of the candidates he backed won the party nominations — a victory on Nov. 8 would be a powerful boost to his eventual bid for the White House in 2024.

Traditionally, it is after the midterm elections in both parties that the presidential candidates who will compete for the nomination are announced. If the results are unfavorable, however, it will no doubt encourage discussions about whether, despite his enormous contributions and support, he is the most suitable next candidate, or whether, say, Republicans are better off betting on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

As for the impact on Bulgaria – a majority of the Republicans, even if only in the lower house, will put quite a few new obstacles to the politics of Joe Biden, who naturally follows the traditional for the globalist consensus, destroyed by Trump, an interventionist line and orchestrating the political processes in other countries. It will also put more powerful brakes on the liberal-progressive gender and climate hysterias that are imposed as a common matrix by their liberal-progressive counterparts in Europe. But the big change will only come if Trump or a pro-Trump candidate returns to the White House. We will live, we will see.

The article is in bulgaria

Tags: red wave coming

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