ISW: Moscow steps up frontline operations before Kiev receives military aid

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu highlighted ongoing Russian offensive operations near Ukraine’s Chasov Yar, Avdeevka and the city of Donetsk and announced Russia’s intention to step up its strike campaign. However, ISW is yet to receive confirmation of all these territorial acquisitions.

Russian forces have not yet achieved significant tactical success near Chasov Yar, after advancing to the eastern outskirts of the settlement in early April 2024, but recently made significant tactical gains northwest of Avdeevka and fragile progress southwest of Donetsk city.

This is stated in the daily analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Shoigu is probably trying to represent the various current Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine as equally successful – despite actual Russian tactical success.

Russian forces are likely to step up operations in the coming weeks to take advantage of the crisis situation with Ukrainian armaments ahead of the expected arrival of the military aid voted this week by the US.

Shoigu also continued the information operation aimed at falsely portraying all Russian military activity as primarily defensive against perceived NATO aggression.

Russia has traditionally portrayed itself as a passive victim of the West, which is trying to defend itself from external attacks. This time, it accused Sweden and Finland of increasing tensions on Russia’s northwestern and western flanks through its accession to NATO.

Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Akbar Ahmadian traveled to St. Petersburg on April 23to attend the 12th Russian International Security Summit.

The Iranian embassy in Moscow said Ahmadian would meet Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev during the meeting.

High-level meetings between Iranian and Russian defense officials help both countries align their national security and defense strategies and strengthen the information reputation of Russia as the leader of a coalition of countries that oppose the West.

The Chechen Republic seems to be trying to get closer to Iran amid strengthening of bilateral cooperation in the field of security between Russia and Iran. Russian State Duma deputy and head of the Chechen Rosgvarda branch Adam Delimkhanov said on April 22 that he met with Iranian Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Akbar Ahmadian during a visit to Iran at the behest of head Ramzan Kadyrov.

Delimkhanov reported that he and Ahmadian discussed security issues in Central Asia and the Middle East and prospects for Russian-Iranian cooperation in countering threats to national security of the two countries. Iran pursues its own interests in the North Caucasus, particularly in Muslim-majority regions, and is likely interested in strengthening ties with Chechen officials to expand its influence in the region. Representatives of the Iranian airline Mahan Air met with Chechen Prime Minister Muslim Khuchiev in December 2023. to discuss the prospect of opening regular flights between Chechnya and Iran to strengthen trade, the economic and cultural ties between the two.

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has announced the UK’s largest ever military aid package for Ukrainevalued at 500 million pounds (about $662 million) on April 23.

Sunak announced on April 23 that The UK will provide Ukraine with over 400 vehicles, 4 million rounds of ammunition small arms, 60 boats, anti-aircraft equipment and Storm Shadow missiles. Sunak also said the UK would increase its military spending to 2.5 percent of its GDP by 2030, with spending gradually increasing to 87 billion pounds (about $108 billion) over the next six years.

Sunak said that increased defense spending will put the United Kingdom “on a fighting footing” because the United Kingdom is facing “an axis of authoritarian states with different values ​​such as Russia, Iran, North Korea and China”.

Moldovan authorities seize over $1 million from Kremlin-linked Moldovan opposition politicians at Chisinau airport on the night of April 22-23. Opposition politicians probably intended to to use them to bribe protesters and voters. Moldovan law enforcement officers carried out more than 150 searches, mostly at Chisinau airport and some private homes, after receiving information that opposition politicians returning from a meeting of Moldovan opposition politicians in Moscow on April 21, which led to the creation of the pro-Russian Electoral “Victory of Moldova” bloc smuggled money into Moldova.

Moldovan authorities announced that they had confiscated about 62,000 rubles (about $660), 3,000 euros (about $3,200) and over $1.1 million during the searches. The head of Moldova’s General Police Inspectorate, Viorel Cernauto, said on April 23 that the money was intended to finance Moldovan political parties led by affiliates of US-sanctioned, pro-Kremlin Moldovan politician Ilan Shor. Unspecified participants reportedly used “couriers” to transport the money from Russia to Moldova and were promised compensation of 300 to 500 euros (about $320-$520). Sernauto noted that the “couriers” carried less than 9,000 euros (about $9,600) in cash to avoid customs laws that require people to declare amounts above 10,000 euros (about $10,700). Shor reportedly paid demonstrators to protest against Moldovan President Maya Sandu in 2022, and Moldovan authorities are investigating Shor’s party for bribing voters in the 2023 Gagauzia gubernatorial election.

Moldovan authorities too have detained members of the Moldovan parliament, who reportedly took bribes from Shore affiliates.

ISW previously assessed that the creation of the Pobeda electoral bloc would allow the Kremlin to focus on a united political effort as part of its efforts to destabilize Moldovan society, attack Moldova’s democratic government and prevent Moldova from joining the European Union (EU).

Russian Federal Censor Roskomnadzor blocked 150 virtual private network (VPN) services in Russia – another step in the Kremlin’s efforts to continue to censor and control the Russian information space. The head of the Department of Control and Supervision Yevgeny Zeitsev announced during a speech at the Safe Internet Forum in Moscow on April 23 that 150 popular VPN services are currently blocked and that the restriction of access to websites and social media posts that advertise VPNs on March 1, when a federal ban on advertising ways to circumvent the restrictions goes into effect.

Zeitsev stated that they were blocked approx 700 sites advertising VPN since March 1 and 200,000 sites accused of spreading false information about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine since February 2022. The Russian government has previously tried to downplay its efforts to block VPNs, although the Kremlin appears increasingly unwilling to tolerate the use of VPNs, which allow Russians to bypass censorship efforts on against the background of ongoing efforts to further consolidate control over the Russian information space.

Ukrainian drone strikes and recent flooding in Russia have reportedly resulted weekly oil refining in Russia to an 11-month lowalthough the reduction in refining output has so far been minor.

Bloomberg reported on April 22 that as of mid-April 2024, Russia was processing 5.22 million barrels of crude oil per day10,000 barrels less than the average in early April.

Russia has reportedly processed 1.23 million barrels of crude oil per day since January at refineries that Ukrainian forces previously targeted with drone strikes, down 280,000 barrels per day from before Ukrainian forces began attacking Russian oil refineries in end of January 2024

Ukrainian drone strikes have shut down 14 percent of Russia’s total oil refining capacity as of April 2.

Flooding in the Orenburg region forced the Orsk oil refinery to shut down on April 7, but Reuters reported that the Orsk refinery resumed operations on April 23.

Reduced Russian refining capacity likely forced Russia to import gasoline from Kazakhstan and Belarus in early April to deal with shortages and try to prevent domestic gasoline prices from rising, although there are no indications that curbs on Russian gasoline production is significant for international market values.

Russian officials noted that reduction in primary oil refining in 2024 is likely to result to an increase in Russian crude oil exports, as Russia will not be able to refine as much as usual.

Future Ukrainian drone strikes could disable and disrupt much of Russia’s refining capacity and impose critical restrictions on Russian refining, which is beginning to have a significant impact on Russian distillate production. However, the Ukrainian drone strikes have not yet significantly affected Russian refining production or domestic Russian or international supplies of crude oil and distillates.