The arrival of ATACMS long-range missiles in sufficient quantities would allow Ukrainian forces to degrade Russian logistics and threaten Russian airfields in deep rear areas, although the months of delay may have given the Russian military time to offset the potential operational impacts ATACMS would have on Ukraine.
This is according to the daily analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
On October 17, 2023, Ukraine first used US-supplied ATACMS long-range missiles to strike Russian targets in occupied Ukraine, as directed its strikes against Russian airfields in the occupied cities of Berdyansk and Luhansk.
Ukrainian forces likely aimed to cut off Russian air support for localized Russian offensive efforts at the time, but were not equipped with sufficient ATACMS to conduct a sustained effort to intercept Russian air assets on a large scale.
Cluster munition-armed versions of the ATACMS missiles allow Ukrainian forces to launch more effective airfield strikes that can destroy Russian aircraft and other assets on a wider scale. than individual missile strikes on individual aircraft.
These strikes could force Russian forces to move aircraft further from the front lines, although this would likely be much more significant for Russian rotary-wing aircraft than for most Russian aircraft, which have much longer ranges.
Russian forces used helicopters to considerable effect in repelling Ukrainian mechanized attacks during the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Zaporozhye region in the summer of 2023, but since then they have used far fewer helicopters.
The arrival of the ATACMS long-range missiles could also pose a significant threat to Russian ammunition depots in rear areas and could force the Russian command to choose between strengthening existing depots and further dispersal of warehouses in occupied Ukraine.
The US has secretly supplied Ukraine with long-range ATACMS missiles
Support against Russian aggression
It is possible that Russian forces have already adapted to potential new Ukrainian strike capabilities following the use of ATASMS in October 2023.
However, Ukrainian strikes against Russian logistics or Russian aviation assets in deep rear areas are likely to be operationally significant only if Ukrainian forces successfully coordinate them with ground operations, to exploit the degraded Russian capabilities as a result of the strikes.
On April 24, US President Joe Biden announced that the US would begin sending military equipment to Ukraine “within hours” of signing a bill that would provide Ukraine with aid in the amount of about 60 billion dollars.
NBC: Biden Considers Sending Long-Range ATACMS to Ukraine to Strike Crimea
The Biden administration is leaning toward supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles
In March 2024, the United States reportedly provided Ukraine with an unspecified number of long-range ATACMS missiles, some of which Ukraine has already used to strike Russian targets in deep rear areas.
Western media reported that senior US officials said that in March 2024, the United States secretly delivered to Ukraine an unspecified number of ATACMS missiles with a range of about 300 km.
A senior US official reported that Ukrainian forces have since attacked a Russian military base with ATACMS missiles in the occupied Crimea and for an unspecified purpose east of the occupied Berdyansk, Zaporozhye region.
The Pentagon: ATACMS missiles can only be used within the sovereign borders of Ukraine
They were already used on October 17 against Luhansk and Berdyansk
On April 24, Russian authorities arrested Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on charges of accepting a bribe, although other Russian sources said Ivanov was suspected of treason.
On April 23, the Russian Investigative Committee announced that Russian authorities had detained Ivanov and were investigating whether he had accepted a bribe, and on April 24, Moscow’s Basmansky Court formally arrested Ivanov on bribery charges.
Russian ultra-nationalist military bloggers largely celebrated Ivanov’s arrest and used it as an opportunity to publicly criticize the Russian Defense Ministry. Russian military bloggers have largely urged Russian courts to they bring Ivanov to court for his crimes and lamented the failures of the Russian Defense Ministry during the war, calling the arrest of a Defense Ministry official long overdue.
London: ATACMS strikes may force Russia to pull command far from frontline
However, this will increase the burden on logistics chains
One of the prominent Kremlin-linked military bloggers tempered the other military bloggers’ celebrations by asking how much had changed since the Russian MoD had replaced many other officials during the war, including some defense and military personnel. employees between posts rather than firing them outright.
