After the loss of Daniil Medvedev to Nick Kyrgios, it is already clear that in a week men’s tennis will have a new leader. Before the start of the tournament, there were four contenders, and after the early elimination of Stefanos Tsitsipas, the battle remained between three – Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud.
Nadal continues to have a huge chance to climb to No. 1, with the most possibilities for this to happen. This would be certain in reaching the final, but it is possible even in an earlier end of his participation in New York, as this would already depend on the performance of Alcaraz and Ruud.
For both of them, the climb below No. 1 goes through a mandatory reach to the final and, in all likelihood, to a title. A potential final between them would also be a direct clash for the first position.
Here are the scenarios:
Nadal will be #1 if:
- reach the finish line
- lost in the quarterfinals or semifinals, and the champion is not Ruud or Alcaraz
- lost in the quarterfinals, and Ruud and Alcaraz did not reach the final
Alcaraz will be #1 if:
- won the title
- Nadal lost in the quarterfinals, and he himself lost in the final to a tennis player other than Ruud
Ruud will be #1 if:
- won the title against a tennis player other than Nadal
- Nadal lost in the quarterfinals, and he himself lost in the final to a tennis player other than Alcaraz