According to a survey of foreign policy experts, China is likely to try to reclaim Taiwan within 10 years
Photo: EPA/YURI KOCHETKOV
Nearly half of leading foreign policy experts believe Russia will become a failed state or collapse by 2033, and a large number of experts expect China to try to take back Taiwan by force, a new Atlantic Council survey shows. which points to a decade of global turmoil ahead.
46% of 167 experts who participated in the survey believe that Russia’s failure or disintegration could happen in the next 10 years. In a separate question, 40% indicated that Russia as a state could collapse due to reasons such as “revolution, civil war or political disintegration” during that time, the Financial Times reported.
“Ukraine clearly highlights the possibility of domestic problems for Russia and the possibility that the war itself could have a boomerang effect not only on its governance but on the country as a whole,” said Peter Engelke, deputy director of forecasting at the Atlantic Council, which helped create and interpret the study.
Western officials say Russia has been significantly weakened by the invasion of Ukraine 11 months ago, including by sanctions and export controls. Economists believe that Russia’s manufacturing capacity is steadily declining as a result of punitive measures, setting the country back decades.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has begun to publicly acknowledge that Moscow is facing setbacks in Ukraine and that the conflict will take a long time. The US and its Western allies have pledged to support Ukraine as much as necessary, with all sides expecting the war to last for years.
Although Europe is experiencing its biggest conflict on land since World War II, most experts in the survey said they do not believe Russia and NATO will engage in direct military conflict in the next decade.
However, backing increasingly ominous warnings from US officials that China will launch a military offensive to retake Taiwan, 70% of respondents predicted Beijing would do so within the next 10 years.
US military commanders have pointed to 2027 – the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army – as a possible date for the invasion. But some officials have stepped up their warnings about Beijing’s intentions over the past year and say the attack could happen before 2024.
US President Joe Biden has consistently said Washington would defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack, though the US has historically tried to avoid answering the question of what it would do to deter either side from action.
Other findings paint a picture of global chaos. Almost 90% of respondents believe at least one more country will acquire nuclear weapons by 2033. And 68% of them say Iran is most likely to acquire a nuclear weapon, while prospects for reviving a nuclear deal between the world’s six leading powers and Iran are getting darker. However, some optimism comes from the fact that, according to 58% of experts, nuclear weapons will remain unused in the next 10 years.
Foreign policy experts expect further US decline. While 71% of those polled predict the US will continue to be the world’s leading military power through 2033, only 31% believe the US will be the number one diplomatic power and 33% the leading economic power.
