Grigor Dimitrov vs. Taylor Fritz – analysis, odds and expectations

Grigor Dimitrov will step out today after 15:00 Bulgarian time on the center court in Geneva, trying to qualify for his debut final in 5 years. The Bulgarian will have the difficult task of competing with world number nine Taylor Fritz, who is having a very strong season and impresses with his serious improvement in the game on red courts, but we should not forget that our compatriot did not fail to beat at least one representative of top 10 in a calendar year since 2012 and just a few months ago he beat Hubert Hurkac when the Pole was part of this most elite group of tennis players.

So far, Dimitrov and Fritz have met only once, and the match in question is four years old. Then the American prevailed after two tiebreaks at the Masters in Madrid, after which our native representative decided to end his first period of cooperation with Dani Valverde, who is currently his head coach again. However, since then the circumstances have been very different and it is time to dive into the analysis to build the best possible tactical plan to counter our first missile.

What we should know about Taylor Fritz:

The second seed is right-handed, stands 196cm tall, has a two-handed backhand and this February reached a record fifth place in the world rankings. Fritz definitely has a preference for faster surfaces, with none of his five titles coming on clay – three on hard and two on grass. However, the former Indian Wells champion showed a huge improvement in his movement on clay courts and the good results did not take long at all. The American dethroned defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas in Monte Carlo and came within one set of his second career Masters final when he fell to eventual champion Andrei Rublev.

As Grigor said in his interview yesterday, the 25-year-old competitor has very serious weapons and practically has no obvious weaknesses in his tennis. The world number nine has one of the most powerful serves on the Tour, with which he can sometimes go under a minute through his own serves. Fritz hits the ball very flat and powerful, preferring to lead the game with his bombastic forehand, but backhand winners are no stranger to the American’s arsenal.

The higher-ranked player relies heavily on sharp diagonals, which he is able to create from almost any point on the court and has also in recent months become far more confident when defending and we often see him showing the necessary amount of patience in the long plays, which wasn’t exactly the case before.

How could Grigor Dimitrov counter?

Our first racket must at all costs look for a continuous change of pace in the plays, because his opponent is a straight player and does not like to find himself in non-standard situations on the court. Fritz feels comfortable dominating from the main line and should be pushed out of his comfort zone as often as possible, in order to enter another dynamic of the match, where the Bulgarian’s chances would increase immensely.

Grigor should not be outplayed from the bottom of the court in any way, because the American has far more serious firepower and there is no way to be defeated in this way. Dimitrov must take advantage of his opponent’s straightness and look for the element of surprise in every possible way, since the second seed is far from the most creative players on the court and would have a hard time reacting to a new situation for him.

A slice is also always a good idea when playing against such a tall player, and our compatriot’s backhand is arguably among the best in the world and I think he would be a better option to the topspin backhand as Fritz likes to play high pace and it will only be in his advantage if Grisho decides to enter his style of play.

Finally, I would consider the possibility of more short balls from the former number three, because the American has a relatively slow start, and even if he gets to the ball in time, his volleys are not at all convincing and our native representative would probably get a chance to place a passing shot .

Expectations and Odds:

The current form is definitely on the Monte Carlo semi-finalist’s side, but I think Grigor has the weapons to put Fritz in serious trouble and I expect him to win at least a set. We should not forget the extremely long time that has passed since the last played final of the haskovlia, who will be extremely motivated to break this “drought”, while the world number nine may think more about the upcoming Roland Garros than about today’s match , although this is a highly speculative claim.

The bookmakers favor the American, giving him a slight advantage, setting a rate of 1.50 for him to succeed, while the odds of Grichaud’s triumph are quoted at 2.50. We will cross our fingers that the preliminary expectations do not come true and that Grigor Dimitrov congratulates himself with reaching the final for the first time since 2018. You will again be able to watch the match on the traditional links in Tennis.bg!

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