The average price of Russian Urals oil in October was $81.52 per barrel, the Ministry of Finance reported. This is 1.15 times higher than last year: then in October the price was $70.62 per barrel.
In January-October, Urals oil averaged $61.84 per barrel. For the same period in 2022, its average price was $79.57 per barrel. Oil brands North Sea Dated (Brent) averaged $91.09 in October. Thus, the Urals discount to Brent last month amounted to $9.6.
The price of Urals more than $20 exceeded the price ceiling of $60 per barrel, which was established by the G7 countries and the EU for deliveries by sea. The EU, as part of the planned 12th package of anti-Russian sanctions, is discussing how to more effectively comply with this limit, Bloomberg wrote. According to the agency, among the ideas being discussed is a ban on operations with vessels that have been sanctioned and a ban on oil shipments at prices above the ceiling. The price ceiling does not include transport costs, which means there is an opportunity to increase delivery costs to avoid sanctions, Bloomberg noted.
Brent oil prices rose after Russia and Saudi Arabia cut oil supplies and production, respectively. Saudi Arabia has decided to extend its oil production cut to 1 million barrels per day until the end of the year. Oil production in the kingdom in October, November and December amounted to approximately 9 million barrels per day. Russia has extended its voluntary oil supply cut of 300,000 barrels per day until the end of 2023.
In September, the futures price exceeded $96 per barrel for the first time since November 2022. Analysts polled by Reuters in September raised their oil price forecasts. According to them, the average price of Brent in 2023 will amount to $84.09 per barrel (in August, the forecast was at the level of $82.45 per barrel). In the last quarter of this year, Brent will trade at an average of $89.85 per barrel, in 2024 — at $86.45 per barrel, according to experts. Forecast prices of Brent crude oil in 2023 and 2024 have also been raised by the US Ministry of Energy.