The government clarified its expectations regarding the exchange rate of the dollar to the hryvnia next year. Also, the Cabinet of Ministers submitted to the Verkhovna Rada the project Budget-2024 for the second reading.
The government has improved its forecasts for the dollar next year
In the 2024 Budget, the adjusted consumer inflation indicator fell slightly, i.e. from 10.8% to 9.7%.
The revision occurred against the background of changes in assumptions about the hryvnia exchange rate – on average for the year 40.7 hryvnias per dollar until the second reading compared to 41.4 hryvnias per dollar in the previous forecast.
– written in the explanatory note.
At the end of 2024, it is expected that the dollar exchange rate will be at the mark 42.1 hryvnias, At that time, the previous estimate was 44.2 hryvnias.
Also, in the second reading, lower expectations were raised for devaluation of hryvnias – 38.6 hryvnias per dollar, against – 40.2 hryvnias per dollar.
How did inflation and GDP indicators change?
Expectations have changed and GDP inflation has changed in the second reading. Also, the government expects inflation for the current year to be 7.1%, while it was previously forecast to be 14.7%.
Instead, the Cabinet of Ministers expects a quick recovery of real GDP in 2023 – up to 5% (previously 2.8%). In 2024, they now predict – 4.6%, instead of – 5%.
Improvements in indicators were influenced by:
- рахуванная размение припушення друганисти варни;
- migration processes, etc.;