The former adviser to the head of the Zelenskyi administration, Oleksiy Arestovich, posted on his Telegram channel an almost programmatic text about what awaits Ukraine in the foreseeable future, ironically playing with his own words about victory in “two or three weeks”, as he put it in February 2022
The first war lasted from 02/24/22 to 04/02/22. Ukraine won this war decisively. It was a war of unity, unprecedented growth, unprecedented light that amazed the whole world – and brought the enemy’s plans to nothing.
The second war began on 04/02/22 and ended on 11/01/23. (Zaluzhny’s article). We brought this war to a draw. There were many hopes of victory, but the result was a draw.
A country with this level of lawlessness, corruption, immorality and complete lack of meaning cannot win a war.
The main reason for the lack of victory is that we do not know the purpose of the victory we seek.
We won – what’s next? What kind of country are we building? For what? The theory is strikingly at odds with the practice. There are many answers to these questions, which means that there is no one that is accepted by everyone or even by the majority. Which in this context is tantamount to no response.
On 01.11.23, the third war began. We will lose her.
“For the ignorant shall be killed by their obstinacy, and the foolish by their indifference.” Proverbs of Solomon
The Russian Federation, having failed miserably in the first war, took feverish (and fundamental) measures – development of the military-industrial complex, bypassing sanctions, changing the foreign policy context (attracting China) and brought the latter to equality.
In the third, she is determined to win.
And we continued to steal.
We also did another, much more terrible thing.
Faced with a tragedy, we bet not on the light (as in the first war), but on our own malice – we joked (even if only verbally) with the corpses of killed Russian soldiers; the unbridled gloating in the Ukrainian segment of social networks after a Russian man died in Egypt after an encounter with a shark and we mocked our neighbors for not being sovereign.
This will drown us for good.
I don’t see any positive scenarios for Ukraine in 2024.
China, Russia and the US are negotiating a ceasefire.
Stagnation, minor violations of the truce, the army gets drunk and shoots, people are depressed, tens of thousands of disappointed people return from the front to the hetmanship, rallies, elections that will not change anything – and even more disappointment.
Scenario 2. The war continues, Western aid is barely trickling down to us, the Russians are mobilizing, another Avdeevka, we are angry, gnashing our teeth and foaming at the mouth, looking for culprits.
Scenario 3. Suddenly they give us a lot of weapons and we take over Tokmak.
After which options 1 and 2 still follow.
Regions are starting to lose loyalty – I can’t imagine Odessa forgiving the Center for removing the Vorontsov monument (Count Mikhail Vorontsov, Governor-General who turned Odessa into the main commercial city of southern Russia in the first half of the 19th century, note ed.).
The West is turning around – no one will pay for peasant strife, corruption and restriction of freedoms anymore.
Negotiations begin – as a last attempt to save the situation, the Russians dictate and must be convinced, the West openly imposes Minsk-3 on us.
Now you can forget about NATO and even about security guarantees – and anyone who says otherwise is lying.
Ukraine is becoming a huge gray area, essentially reverting to its pre-war state – due to its inability to fend for itself.
The economy is shrinking, people are angry and depressed, the smart, the nimble and the talented are on the run, the streets are littered with trash and riot police.
Ukraine is starting to collapse in on itself.
Russia is preparing for the second round having learned from its mistakes and prepared differently.
2024 is the year of the last warning to Ukraine.
“And there is no peace for the wicked, says the Lord.” (Isaiah 48:22)
Here again are three scenarios:
Scenario 4: The Russian Federation, having prepared well, begins the second round (probably hiding behind events in Taiwan) and after that – whatever the Lord decides. But He can also send us (damn it)if we continue as we are now.
Scenario 5: Ukraine, having reached the end of the rope, comes to its senses, ends the scenario of the peasant dictatorship (1918 script)turns sharply to the path of expanding rights and freedoms and relies on talents instead of whims, on meaning instead of emotions.
Scenario 6: The West comes to its senses, assesses the prospects of a takeover of Ukraine by Russia, begins to provide not insignificant, but real help, and the fourth war begins – with international brigades of F-16s, with all types of long-range missiles, with echelons of tanks and strict control over the Ukrainian authorities , whatever they are.
But 2024 will be scary.
This is the last warning to us.
“Those born in mud will drown in mud.”
By the evening of November 16, more than 8,000 comments had been left under this publication, the opinions of Ukrainians were divided: some believed that Arestovich had expressed the “bitter truth”, others reproached him for fleeing Ukraine, calling him a traitor.
Translation and editing: Epicenter.BG