In the coming decades, Germany’s population will increase. But the demographic situation in the country is characterized by some regional differences. In the western German states, the population will indeed increase, while in the eastern states and in the smallest federal state, the Saarland, the number of inhabitants will decrease. These conclusions were reached by the Bertelsmann Foundation’s large-scale study of demographic trends in German municipalities until 2040.
The share of pensioners is growing
However, behind the dry numbers in the scientists’ report, there are also some worrying trends. In the coming decades, many municipalities will face serious problems. The most worrying problem in the country is aging. And in the coming years, it will deepen. In 2020, the share of people over the age of 65 was 20%, but in 20 years it will reach 28%. For the German economy, this means that the workload of the working population will increase and the shortage of personnel in the labor market will deepen. All the social and medical systems that care for the needs of the older population will be additionally strained.
But the demographic situation in Germany is not uniform. While 12.3% fewer people will live in Saxony-Anhalt in 20 years, in the province of Baden-Württemberg the population will increase by 4.5% – that is, the number of “Swabians”, as they are called in Germany, will increase residents. Most people will live in Berlin and Hamburg. For example, in the city of Elba, the growth will be 6 percent. And Leipzig, Potsdam and Bamberg will grow by as much as 10%.
The study’s authors call now for a targeted strategy to be developed and decisive action to be taken. They make it clear that without funding from Berlin and from the provincial capitals in many regions it will be difficult to face the demographic challenges.
How the war in Ukraine affects
For scientists’ predictions, three factors play a key role: the level of birth rate, death rate and population migration. The first two factors in Germany develop within clearly defined, stable frameworks – and scientists can predict them with a fair degree of certainty. But migration seriously complicates solving the demographic equation. The authors of the study emphasize that in recent years demographic forecasts have been seriously complicated by two factors: the war in Syria in 2015 and the war in Ukraine since 2022. The two military conflicts had a major impact on the demographic picture in Germany.
The authors of the study pay attention to something particularly important: the two migrant waves are seriously different from each other. Unlike the migrants from Syria, mainly young and middle-aged women arrived in Germany from Ukraine. In what direction can this affect the demographic trends in the country? One of the authors of the study answers this question, posed by the Minister of State:
“As a result, the composition of the population changes, especially in relation to the different age groups. For the municipalities, this means that, for example, more places must be provided in kindergartens and in schools, and the care of refugee children and their mothers will be of great importance,” says Petra Klug.
Will migration pressure decrease?
According to experts, the extremely high level of migration to Germany, which has been observed since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, will not last long. But is it even possible to predict migration processes in conditions of war? Petra Klug answers:
“In 2022, we registered just over one million refugees from Ukraine. However, from August of that year until now, the inflow has been steadily decreasing. That is why the forecast is obvious. However, there remains some uncertainty regarding the future development of the situation, because no one knows when and how it will end this war. Our calculations, the trends we find, can help in the municipal planning process. That’s why we periodically update our forecast, taking into account any current changes.”
The material was published in DW
