From ‘circular diplomacy’ to lobbying: How the world is preparing for a ‘Trump 2.0’ scenario

Germany is waging a charm offensive in the Republican Party. Japan is preparing its own adviser to Trump. Mexican government officials are talking to his camp. Australia, on the other hand, is busy drafting laws to help protect its security treaties with the US if Donald Trump wins and decides to change them in some way.

Across the board, U.S. allies are taking steps to protect or advance their interests in case the former president returns to power after the November election, a chance estimated at 50 percent based on recent polls in swing states. In doing so, they want to avoid the cold slap that Trump’s “America First” policies dealt them last time, which included trade wars, a shake-up of security alliances, a crackdown on immigration and withdrawal from the global climate accord.

Reuters spoke to diplomats and government officials from five continents about their countries’ preparations for a “Trump 2.0” scenario, with Mexico preparing to appoint a new Trump-savvy foreign minister, Australia preparing to defend deal is with Washington to acquire submarines, and various German officials are in talks with Republican state governors.

Some foreign leaders have reached out directly to Trump despite the risk of upsetting his election rival, Democratic incumbent Joe Biden. The crown prince of Saudi Arabia, for example, recently called Trump, according to a source familiar with the conversation, while the prime minister of Hungary and the president of Poland have met him in person in recent weeks.

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron also held talks with Trump this month in Florida, then told reporters in Washington that his meeting was a private dinner where they discussed Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas war and the future of NATO.

White House spokeswoman Karin Jean-Pierre confirmed to the news agency that meetings like the one held by Cameron are not rare. Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign team said he discussed security-related issues with each of the European leaders, including Polish President Andrzej Duda’s proposal that NATO members spend at least 3 percent of their gross domestic product on defense. They are currently aiming to reach 2%.

Jeremy Suri, a historian at the University of Texas, said meetings between US presidential candidates and diplomats from different countries are normal, but added that he thought Trump’s meeting with Orbán and the conversation with Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman were unusual. .

Trump adviser Brian Hughes emphasized: “The meetings and calls of world leaders reflect the recognition of what we already know here at home. Joe Biden is weak and when President Trump is sworn in as the 47th president of the United States, the world will be more secure and America more prosperous.”

And when asked if all this talk shows that the world is worried about Trump returning to the White House, Carolyn Leavitt, a spokeswoman for his campaign staff, said: “I disagree with that. America’s allies eagerly hope that President Trump will be re-elected.”

Germany is building bridges with Trump’s Republican base at the state level, reminding party officials that it is investing heavily in American industry.

Given that Trump threatened punitive tariffs on the German auto industry while he was president, and now wants to impose a minimum 10% tariff on all imports if he returns to office, Berlin is using the so-called transatlantic coordinator to prepare for the “Trump 2.0” scenario.

In his capacity as such, Michael Link has led what Germany calls “tourist diplomacy,” going around wavering states in which the country is a major investor.

“It would be extremely important if Donald Trump is re-elected to prevent the punitive tariffs he plans on EU goods,” Link told Reuters, adding that he had met with the Republican governors of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Alabama and Indiana. At each of his stops, he explains why good trade ties are at the heart of Germany’s presence in the US. The largest exporter of US-made cars is BMW, and Germany claims the company directly and indirectly employs 860,000 Americans.

Link has also met with Democratic Party officials, but lobbying those who can influence Trump is his priority.

In Mexico, government officials met with people close to Trump to discuss issues involving migration and trafficking of fentanyl, a synthetic opioid, into the United States. On both issues, Mexico could face more pressure from the US under a new Trump administration. The Republican has made no secret that he will order the Pentagon to “appropriately use special forces” to attack the leadership and infrastructure of the cartels, which is unlikely to receive the blessing of the Mexican government.

Mexican officials also discussed the North American Free Trade Agreement, which was last rewritten under the Trump presidency in 2020 and is due to be renegotiated in 2026, the news agency’s sources added. In recent public statements, Trump has supported the idea of ​​rewriting that agreement.

And in a sign of how important personal relationships are to Trump, Mexico’s ruling party is mulling alternate candidates to nominate as its next foreign secretary, depending on whether he or Biden ultimately has a better chance of winning.

Presidential elections are held in Mexico in June. If ruling party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum wins, as currently expected, she will take office in October, one month before the US election. If the polls point to a Trump victory, she is likely to choose Marcelo Ebrard as her foreign minister, the sources said. He was Mexico’s foreign minister during Trump’s presidency and is generally seen in the country as holding his own in dealings with the White House.

To bolster its diplomatic commitment to the Trump camp, Japan is preparing to send Sunao Takao, a Harvard-educated translator who helped former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe bond with the former president over several rounds of golf. Another former prime minister of Japan, Taro Aso, met with Trump in New York on Tuesday.

America’s closest ally in Asia fears the Republican could revive trade protectionism and demand more money to support US forces in Japan, government officials in Tokyo say.

At the same time, Britain’s Labor Party, now in opposition but a favorite to win the election expected by the end of the year, may have a steeper hill to climb to get on good terms with the Trump administration. Labour’s foreign secretary candidate David Lammy once wrote in Time magazine that Trump was a “woman-hating neo-Nazi sociopath”. Now it is he who works to build ties with Republicans. Lammy has met with their representatives who are seen as candidates for roles in Trump’s cabinet, including Mike Pompeo, a former US secretary of state under the previous Republican administration.

Victoria Coates, Trump’s former deputy national security adviser, said a Labor victory could spell a difficult period for US-UK relations if Trump wins, citing “personal backbiting” by the British left.

Australia’s ambassador to the US, Kevin Rudd, recently drew the ire of Trump for past criticism of him. In an interview last month, the Republican said he had heard that Rudd, a former prime minister, was “a bit nasty” and that “if he’s hostile, he won’t be in the US for long”. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong defended Rudd, saying he would remain ambassador even if Trump regained power.

Behind the scenes, Rudd is trying to protect a key defense deal from being overturned by Trump. The Biden administration has agreed to help Australia take its first step towards a nuclear submarine fleet by selling Canberra three to five Virginia-class attack submarines. Rudd has now urged the Australian administration to quickly pass legislation to bring it closer to US arms control standards and to create a special nuclear safety authority, in the hope that this will make the sale harder for Trump to scuttle.

And Camberra’s concerns are entirely realistic, says Michael Shorebridge of Strategic Analysis Australia, who says Trump’s “America First” policy could still derail the deal.

“All the levers are there for Trump to say: The US Navy doesn’t have enough, so Australia won’t get anything,” said the defense expert.

The most discreet way for US allies to influence Trump is through lobbyists.

A former South Korean government official who is now in Washington commented that the Biden administration is closely monitoring foreign governments and that Seoul prefers to understand Trump’s plans through lobbying companies in an “inconspicuous way.”

Washington’s lobbying district is swarming with South Koreans wanting to know Trump’s views on trade and investment, including what will happen to Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a South Korean government official told Reuters. The IRA supports the redirection of production and the energy transition. Trump, however, flatly rejects Biden’s push to shift from fossil fuels to green energy.

Some US allies use lobbyists linked to Trump, including Ballard Partners, run by Florida lobbyist Brian Ballard, a company sought after for its close ties to the former president. Ballard Partners’ clients also include Japan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

“Many members of our firm are longtime allies of the former president,” says Justin Saiffey, a partner at Ballard.