H Russia’s deputy defense minister was arrested Tuesday night on bribery charges, but some analysts suggest Timur Ivanov’s detention is a warning to his superior, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed off on that arrest and sent a message to Shoigu that said something along the lines of “this could have been you,” David Silby, an associate professor of history at Cornell University, told Newsweek.
On Wednesday, Shoigu removed Ivanov from his post as deputy defense minister, the Kremlin-controlled TASS news agency reported. Hours earlier, there were reports of Ivanov’s arrest on charges that he took bribes, which a Moscow court called “particularly large.” He could face up to 15 years in prison.
Shoigu’s deputy remains in custody
Before his arrest, Ivanov was in charge of Russian military infrastructure projects. Perhaps more importantly, he was considered one of Shoigu’s closest allies. The two men worked together for many years, including when Ivanov was deputy prime minister of the Moscow region while Shoigu was governor of the region.
The Kremlin denied initial reports that Ivanov’s arrest was related to treason, but not everyone is convinced of Russia’s official position on Ivanov’s detention.
“Since corruption among senior Russian officials is endemic, it is hard to believe that the arrest of Shoigu’s deputy was only because of corruption. Either he did something else that someone opposed, or it is a move to weaken Shoigu – or both”says Professor Mark Katz.
Shoigu has often been blamed for Russia’s shortcomings on the battlefield in Ukraine, including by former Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who died in a plane crash under mysterious circumstances after leading a rebellion against Moscow. Katz said the incident reminded him of the public feud between Shoigu and Prigozhin.
“The arrest is reminiscent of Prigozhin’s criticism last year of incompetence in Russia’s top military leadership. Prigozhin is gone, but the problems he exposed remain.”says Katz.
“The real question is not whether the deputy minister is corrupt. Instead, the question is whether he and – more importantly – Shoigu have become independent centers of power.”says William Reno, professor and chair of the political science department at Northwestern University.
Shoigu’s deputy is detained for corruption
“Corruption in the current regime is a strategic asset that is tolerated and even encouraged to cultivate a person’s loyalty and dependence on the political leadership, and then used against him when he becomes a threat or should be used as a convenient target for an indictment of the regime’s shortcomings. Accusing him of corruption at this point helps undermine public trust and support for his chief, Shoigu.”says Renault.
“The indictment of a high-ranking official in corruption also underscores Putin’s sovereign right as a leader to punish, which strengthens his authority among his subordinates and in the eyes of Russian citizens.”adds the specialist.
According to Silby, Ivanov’s arrest may be just the beginning of what’s to come for Shoigu.
“Remember that being ‘too powerful’ is not a deterrent for Putin or any dictator, removing someone is an incentive.” he says.
“The more powerful someone is, the more they pose an existential threat to the dictator. I wouldn’t be surprised if Shoigu is next or retires suddenly.”adds Silby.
* In the video: Shocking footage of corruption in Russia
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Source: Newsweek
