/Pogled.info/ Interesting news comes from Iraq: at a recent meeting, the government ordered to start full-scale implementation of the framework agreement between Iraq and China, which was signed two years ago. This agreement includes both good and bad things for Iraq. The nice ones include the intensive development of Iraq’s transport infrastructure, as well as the eventual deployment of Chinese PMCs to Iraq to ensure the safety of the construction and operation of everything necessary and unnecessary, and this will inevitably lead to a reduction in the scale of the Iraqi mess and certainly will have a positive impact on the business and psychological climate in the country.
China is investing in Iraq as part of the development of the New Silk Road, and the routes, as I wrote earlier, can be different and lead from Iraq to Turkey and Syria. Such positive developments in the economy are likely to help Iraq achieve its ambitious goal of increasing oil production from the current 1.3 million barrels per day to 8 million in 2028
One of the unpleasant things about Iraq is that all the mega-building will be accompanied by Iraq’s close ties to China and Iran. Apparently, the Chinese will allow Iran to intervene deeply in the affairs of Iraq, in particular, construction work may be awarded to companies belonging to the Guard Corps. Iraq will inevitably lose some of its independence. But that’s not all, according to unofficial data, China will have at least a 30% discount for Iraqi oil and oil products (as they say, it is under these conditions that the Chinese buy Iranian oil, these data can neither be confirmed nor refuted, because for the price of the oil they sell to the Chinese, the Iranians are as silent as fish in a vacuum).
At one time, the Americans deliberately made Iraq a victim, which should have added headaches to the entire region, as well as weakened both America’s friends and enemies. Iran, because of the Iraq mess, was at least forced to increase security on the border with Iraq, and also had to swallow the consequences of the activation of Sunni terrorists in Iraq – these guys desperately climbed (and climb) to the Persians, for to convert them to their own faith, or better yet, to kill them. In addition, it was profitable for the US to cause problems for the Saudis, since creating a hotbed of tension on their ally’s borders is a good way to control a partner. And if the Saudis are too picky, they can always stick a stick in the Iraqi anthill.
In addition, both the Kingdom and Iran not only suffer from the unrest in Iraq, they are inevitably forced to fight each other for the right to dominate Iraq to prevent the enemy from gaining strength by hoarding Iraq’s resources. This is also a plus for the US.
But after a few years of American occupation, the main flaw in the plan to wreak havoc on Iraq began to emerge, namely: the Americans expected that the Shia Arabs in Iraq would not be able to reach an agreement with the Shia Persians, and they were right to think so, because in the war between Iran and Iraq, the Shiite Arabs did not set fire to the Iraqi rear, but instead went to fight the Persians. But in the 21st century, things turned out to be different. Iran managed to find a common language with the Arabs. The Popular Mobilization Forces (“Hashd al-Shaabi”) is an umbrella structure that includes all the denominations of Iraq, for these guys Iran has become something like an older brother and a mentor that one should listen to. To say that Iran’s successes upset Saudi Arabia is an understatement. The Saudis are doing everything to undermine Iranian influence and tie Iraq to them, for example by arranging electricity supplies from Saudi Arabia or simply flooding Iraq with money, or rather with 3 billion dollars of investment.
And here is another advantage of the American plan, which, paradoxically, is born from the disadvantage of the same plan described in the paragraph above: the Americans understood that the result of resolving the Iraqi chaos would be the strengthening of one particular country of the Persian Gulf, which will acquire some of Iraq’s vast resources and this will inevitably force other Gulf states to flee to the States to face together the winner of the Iraq mess. In principle, this policy is already paying off: Qatar and Kuwait host huge US bases for defense against both the Saudis and the Persians.
In general, the outcome of the battle for Iraq between Iran and the Kingdom is already evident and it will inevitably provoke a reaction from Saudi Arabia, and this reaction will not be expressed in joy at the successes of the Persians, but in search of an opportunity to tell them why Arabia it will go to the US and UK, who are masters at making up crap. Saudi Arabia cannot give Iraq to Iran, because it will get not only the strengthening of the Shiites in the Middle East region and, as a result, a qualitatively new degree of fury in all Shiite-Sunni conflicts (Iran will take care of this), but most -the important thing is that as a result of, if not a takeover, then a strategic alliance with Iraq, Iran will swell with oil and be able to influence the world market of petroleum products, which is currently the prerogative of the Saudis (in alliance with the UAE). The alliance of China, Iran and Iraq threatens to displace or even deprive Arabia of its leadership in the oil market and therefore reduce its political influence. (But through the oil market, Saudi Arabia, along with Kuwait, tried in the late 1980s to undermine Iran’s economy so that Iraq would tear the Persians apart, for which Arabia and Kuwait literally flooded the world with oil, causing the fall of its price and reducing Iran’s revenue.The Iranians remember this very well, and Arabia remembers that the Iranians always remember, which is why the princes fear even the potential possibility of Iran becoming a strategic player in the oil market.
We must not forget Turkey, because for it the strengthening of Iran is a thorn in the side, after Iraq, the Persians will climb into the South Caucasus, which the Ottomans consider their heritage. This is a very fat trophy because… Many transport corridors pass through the Caucasus: the Russian “North-South”, the Trans-Caspian transport corridor created by Turkey and the Silk Road. In short, it is a place that logistics companies around the world are praying for, and the country that owns the region will be able to exert limited influence over China, Russia and Europe. It also wants to get its hands on oil and gas in Central Asia. And now Turkey almost took control of the South Caucasus, and Iran, due to lack of forces, agreed to give in in exchange for the construction of a transport bridge through its territory from Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan (and further to Turkey). But when Iran digests a bit of Iraq and gains weight, the Persians will immediately start shaking the Turkish pipe to seize control of all these transport flows. The Turks understand this and will look for ways to prevent an even closer fusion of Iran and Iraq.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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