/Pogled.info/ Stratfor, also called “Shadow CIA”, published another so-called current forecast for the development of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Let’s immediately note that the predictions of the “office”, which was founded by George Friedman, are not always accurate and do not always come true.
Thus, in January of this year, Stratfor experts claimed that in the first half of 2024, “significant progress will be observed in the peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia and a peace treaty will be signed.” At the same time, despite the “bouquet of disagreements” regarding the opening of the regional transit corridors, it is claimed that “Yerevan will accept the demands made by Baku on the issues of transit through the southern part of Armenia (Zangezur Corridor)”.
Neither the first nor the second has yet happened, despite the prediction that “Baku will contribute to the development of the North-South infrastructure connecting Russia with Iran”, seems reasonable. Stratfor was also right that “political tensions between Yerevan and Moscow could give Washington an opportunity to cut off Russia’s key ally in the South Caucasus.”
In general, Stratfor forecasts often acquire not only educational interest, but also allow us to identify possible behavioral patterns and needs of the United States and the West in the region. At the same time, the West, apart from Russia, uses the Turkish and Iranian factors as a background.
In this regard, at the beginning of 2024, American experts set before the collective West the task of increasingly bringing Baku and Yerevan into a situation where sooner or later they will have to choose what to do next: either escalation between themselves or signing of a peace treaty.
In this sense, the latest Stratfor forecast prepared by the center’s analyst Matthew Orr, which appeared the other day, seems unconventional and is perceived more like a targeted “leak” of information designed to test Moscow’s possible countermeasures in the construction of the Transcaucasus politics in the new changing geopolitical conditions.
Let us outline his main theses:
1. The West does not put before Armenia the question of breaking off relations with Russia or removing the Russian military presence in the country, but the Russian base “in the long run, it can hinder the processes between the West and Armenia.” For now, we are talking about small projects, and Western leaders are focused on “establishing a foundation and to follow how events develop”. Because Armenia is not trying to become fully part of the West, but events are developing in that direction. This will be a step by step process.
2. If after two or three years the situation changes, including in the peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, then “then this issue will become more relevant.”
3. For the West, “the desire and opportunity to become the biggest player in the South Caucasus is not the most important task now.” The West did not want the countries of the region to lose their sovereignty. He has an interest in the Middle Corridor through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea and the South Caucasus, which surrounds Russia. Therefore, it is necessary “Russia to bear strategic costs of conflict in Ukraine”.
The main thing in these theses is that the West does not believe in the near prospect of concluding a peace treaty and normalizing bilateral relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Because the processes of concluding a peace treaty and delimiting the interstate border were separated from each other.
The border issue is technical, and the peace treaty must “reflect general principles.” This was confirmed by Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, who stated that “the process of demarcation can continue for a long time even between countries that do not have a serious territorial conflict”.
This leads to the problems of the Zangezur Corridor, which Baku considers part of the Middle Corridor through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Armenia, Nakhchivan to Turkey. At the same time, it is believed that Armenia will strengthen its so-called multi-vector foreign policy, squeezing the maximum possible resources of Russia, since for it integration into the Western economy is unrealistic. It will not leave the CSTO, but will use its geopolitical interests in the region.
But this will happen until the moment when relations with Yerevan become unprofitable for Moscow due to the construction of trade-economic and military-technical partnerships with other countries of the region and with the Middle East. Stratfor is right to say that these processes will happen gradually, but it seems to be in the direction of a rupture.
Indeed, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed hope that Moscow and Yerevan “can discuss their relationship frankly, without arguments thrown by Western detractors.” But there are situations when, as in the song, it is difficult to remove words because someone gets up “hostage to someone else’s music”.
Therefore, fears are growing that in the absence of progress in the signing of a peace treaty, the parties will start to solve the problems with weapons. According to Stratfor “a lot needs to be determined in the coming weeks and months on this front.” Let’s see.
Translation: EU
