“Politico”: Russia may win in Ukraine before the end of Biden’s term, despite the aid approved by Congress

By Andrew Michita, Politico Follow “Voices” in Telegram

Russia’s victory in the Ukraine conflict may come sooner than many predict. This could happen this year, writes “Politico”.

As the third year of the war in Ukraine progresses, much has been written about how the collective West has finally awakened from its strategic slumber in the face of the threat Russia poses to Europe.

But it’s time to face the facts: with the aid package for Ukraine finally passed by the US Congress, Europe has been slow to ramp up arms and ammunition production — not only to the level needed to support Kiev, but and in terms of resupply NATO needs its own army. And with the situation on the ground deteriorating, a Russian victory in Ukraine may come sooner than many predict — possibly even before US President Joe Biden ends his term.

However, repeated warnings that if Ukraine lost, Russia would rebuild its ground forces and be ready to attack NATO, led to little more than delay and indecision. And apart from the countries on NATO’s eastern flank, Europe’s political leaders continue to act as if not much has changed, as their rhetoric is still not matched by commensurate action.

Promises of future spending are not the same as actual contracts that would prompt European defense contractors to ramp up production quickly and at scale. And without European rearmament, NATO is simply setting itself up for failure.

The U.S. and allied military leadership—both at U.S. European Command and at Supreme Allied Commander Europe—worked tirelessly to return NATO to its original role of providing collective deterrence and defense. The Alliance already has regional plans with requirements for force generation capabilities that will restore this essential function. But unless Europe spends the money to expand its defense industrial base and provide real military capabilities to make these new regional plans credible, their implementation will be fraught with unacceptable risk.

Still, judging by the uneven response from several European capitals on defense spending, allies appear to be clinging to a culture of talk while counting on the US to shoulder the lion’s share of the burden. Today, only 18 of NATO’s 32 members spend – or have promised to spend – the promised 2 percent of GDP on defense. To put this in perspective, during the Cold War, European countries spent an average of 3 to 5 percent of GDP on defense.

But the allies signed off on those new plans at the last NATO summit in Vilnius — meaning the capability commitments associated with those plans are a binding promise. Yet, just three months before the 75th anniversary of NATO’s summit in Washington this summer, the alliance continues to grapple with deficiencies in integrated air and missile defense, deep precision strikes, command and control and logistics.

Moreover, there is no real realization that NATO can fail in a crisis simply because it continues to fail when it needs to rebuild into a military alliance.

Generally speaking, among decision-makers in Europe – especially those in countries further from the eastern flank – there seems to be little appreciation of the fact that the issue of capabilities will be crucial in shaping NATO’s future. Put simply, without European allies shifting the burden of conventional deterrence and defense from the US military to their own forces – with the US continuing to provide nuclear deterrence and high-tech assets – NATO will not have the forces needed to implement its new plans .

Meanwhile, the ongoing debate over whether the US should prioritize the Pacific or remain engaged in both the Atlantic and Pacific theaters could turn into a zero-sum game that — if a crisis comes to Asia — Europe will lose.

Thus, European NATO allies must move at full speed to provide resources to their military. As long as the Russian imperial state exists in its current form, the threat it poses to Europe will not disappear. And whether Russia ultimately wins or loses in Ukraine — whether it seizes the country, controls part of its territory, or is driven out entirely — it will remain a chronic threat to peace until Moscow’s revanchist drive is broken.

If Europe is to avoid being dragged into a general full-scale war again, it must rearm quickly and massively. Without a real commitment to rearmament, Europe’s NATO allies will continue to flounder, mired in debates over institutional changes within the EU, disputes over how much they should spend on defense and where to source their weapons and ammunition – all the while. setting the conditions for NATO to fail, the publication also writes.

Source: “Labor”