A Russian breakthrough west of Avdeevka could force tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops to withdraw from Donetsk

Last weekend, the 47th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) retreated from the front line east of the village of Ocheretino in the Avdeev direction, and the Russians attacked and nearly broke through Ukrainian positions in a strip of undefended terrain.

The place of the brigade withdrawn from the front line was to be taken by the 115th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. But that didn’t happen. According to the company commander of the 47th mechanized brigade, Nikolai Melnik, “some units simply disappear,” the American magazine notes Forbes. Russian scouts and drone operators monitoring the positions held by the 47th Mechanized Brigade expected to find soldiers from the 115th Mechanized Brigade in the same trenches. “Instead, they found … no one,” the publication wrote.

This was a chance for the 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Army to pass along the railway lines running west of Avdeyevka and capture a narrow salient that on the map looks like a knife cutting into the Ukrainian defense line, but “stuck” on halfway to Ocheretino. A Russian breakthrough could destroy the Ukrainian line west of Avdeyevka and force tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers to withdraw from the Donetsk region, the editorial office said.

The only reason the Russians didn’t push deeper into the Ukrainian rear this weekend is because the retreating 47th Mechanized Brigade turned around and rejoined the fight. “The 47th Mechanized Brigade is back in action,” assured Melnyk.

“Over the past few days, the Russians have slightly expanded their stated position, but have made no progress. For now, the catastrophe for Ukraine has been averted,” the publication wrote.

But the fighting still goes on. If Moscow’s forces are able to transfer reserves to the captured positions, they may be able to extend their offensive. The publication notes that the 90th Guards Tank Division of the Russian Army, which is currently not at war, is located nearby. If the division strengthens the ground, it could complicate any Ukrainian counterattack. In the worst-case scenario for Ukraine, a tank division could force the 47th Mechanized Brigade to retreat.

The good news for the VSU is that they will get plenty of ammunition and a large new batch of M-2s for the 47th Mechanized Brigade.

“Russian forces appear to be seeking to make a broad breakthrough in the VSU positions northwest of Avdeyevka,” notes the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), “but their ability to do so will be blunted by the arrival of Western assistance.” the analysts.