/Pogled.info/ Confirmation has been found that behind-the-scenes attempts by Russia and the US to reach an agreement on Ukraine have failed and a new escalation is imminent. The next “window” of opportunity for a peaceful end to the war will open after the November elections in the United States. Great things await Russia in Ukraine.
History is written in front of people, but usually viewed from a great distance. Let’s try to decipher the meaning of what is happening, looking almost blindly.
This is not about “conspiracy theories”, but facts. If an explanation has been found as to why they line up one way or another, it means that we have been able to look behind the scenes where the big politics are made and accordingly understand what lies ahead.
There are many facts, but very few are important for understanding this or that question. In this case, the following were enough for me.
Keep track of the numbers!
On April 11, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine – after much delay and discussion – adopted in its second reading a completely draconian mobilization law, which means total war in conditions when aid to Kiev from the United States was almost “frozen”, and the Europeans made it clear that are more or less capable of supplying Kiev satisfactorily without the Americans in just a few months.
On April 11-12, the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, unexpectedly arrived in Moscow and spoke with Vladimir Putin around four o’clock in the morning in the format of a “working lunch”.
It is clear that it is not primarily about space exploration and economic cooperation, but about Ukraine. Tsarigrad then suggested that, judging by a number of indirect signs, Moscow had received from Washington some proposals to end the Ukrainian conflict, which the Russian president should have urgently discussed with Lukashenko as his closest ally.
Perhaps this was a response to some proposals from Moscow, drawn up in the spirit of Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev’s lecture “Geographic and Strategic Borders” at the “Knowledge First” marathon on March 4.
Of course, the results of the negotiations on the most important issue were not communicated. But the events that poured out like an empty sack in Ukraine, Russia and overseas after Lukashenko’s return to Minsk proved more eloquent than words.
On April 16, Zelensky signed a law that extremely tightens the mobilization procedure in the country and means war to the last Ukrainian.
On April 19, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov gave a long interview to radio stations Sputnik, Govori Moskva and KP. He said there would be no pause in hostilities with Ukraine in the event of talks, that the realities of the conflict had become “significantly different”. This was not just a hint that there would be no new Istanbul.
“I mean, said Lavrov, not only the dislocation and the contact line, but also the presence of changes in the constitution, the presence of four new and old, our original regions. Everyone should understand this very well.”
The Russian foreign minister cited Putin’s answer to the question of how to ensure the safety of our lands.
“We have to move the line from where they can hit us.”
Lavrov pointed out.
The foreign minister was extremely specific and frank:
“As far as I understand, Kharkiv plays an important role here. We are fully convinced that we should continue the SVO”.
Lavrov said the word “Kharkov” and… he didn’t stop there! He stressed that he “doesn’t know” what will happen to Western Ukraine, but the affiliation of “originally Russian Ukraine” to Russia is not under discussion. Who is not discussed with? Clearly with whom!
Maximum program
This position is very consonant with the theses of Medvedev’s lecture in Sirius: the geopolitical space of Russia is inseparable from the time of the ancient Russian state. Here are its main meanings.
1. The West’s desire to shrink Russia “within the Moscow principality” is a “consciously unattainable” goal.
2. “The territories on both banks of the Dnieper are an integral part of the strategic historical borders of Russia.
3. The “integral parts” of the Russian Empire “must return home.” “Ukraine is, of course, Russia. The alternative concept “must go forever”.
4. The special military operation is “a forced but quite effective response to the Russophobic policy of the Bannerder regime and the collective West”, we will certainly bring it “to its logical conclusion, to final victory, to the capitulation of neo-Nazis.
Negotiations on Ukraine are possible not with the current authorities in Kiev, but only “with some new people… when they recognize the realities that have developed on the ground”, since “everyone perfectly understands that we will never give up our lands. “.
With a high degree of probability, it can be assumed that this was precisely the maximum program presented to the attention of the United States by Russia, which did not satisfy Washington.
Because it would be a monstrous strategic defeat, the end of American hegemony, a 100 times stronger blow to the Democrats in the run-up to the election than the shameful US escape from Afghanistan.
Washington is against it, the Republicans are maneuvering
In short, the Americans said no, and, apparently, they didn’t even bargain much. Judging by the dates of the above facts, the exchange of views was terminated on April 13-14. And it became definitively clear that by the end of the year, by the time the US presidential election is over, the war in Ukraine will continue and gain momentum.
This was to be expected, because even the “best” Americans – former and perhaps future President Donald Trump, according to rumors, were ready to “cede” to Russia only … Crimea and Donbass, without being “eaten” for their unpatriotism their own Republicans and the globalist elite.
All this fully explains what happened to the “Russophile” Trump, who the day before suddenly wrote on social networks that “the survival and strength of Ukraine is important” for the United States and, according to The New York Times, “reduced the intensity of opposition to aid to Ukraine in the last few days.
Trump backed House Speaker Mike Johnson and “remained in the shadows” on the day of the April 20 vote on Ukraine’s next tranche, “refusing to pressure Republicans to vote against” the bill.
Why were they “shrunken”?
Republicans resisted its adoption for a long time and suddenly “gave in”: 101 “red” deputies supported the Democrats, who unanimously voted for “aid” to Ukraine. What drives Trump, Johnson, etc. “moderate” Republicans?
According to what they were told: Moscow does not agree to a piece of Ukraine, it wants almost all of it, the US is in for a terrible humiliation, and if the Republicans are patriots, they should not allow this.
They also understood that the rapidly approaching collapse of Ukraine without significant help from the United States would be blamed on them by the Democrats, and they would also convince Americans that the “Trumpists” were the ones being mocked by Russia, thereby eliminating the colossal costs of the Ukrainian project.
Half of the Republicans in the House of Representatives turned out to be internationally minded. And while the Biden administration continues to pointedly ignore their outrage at the collapse of the country’s southern border with illegal immigrants, they wanted to show (albeit misconstrued) patriotism at least on the outer contour.
Democrats decided not to provide such a trump card to use against Republicans in the November election. We have already started using it. Also, Kiev’s “aid” is mainly aid to American companies, so most of the amount given will stay in their own country.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump, Johnson and Co. have taken into account another important circumstance. The Pentagon has been pushing for money, ammunition and weapons for Kiev, and arguments with the military in the run-up to the election are unnecessary because the Democrats, who have clearly decided to rig them again, are counting on the military to quell Republican protests.
A more favorable treatment of the US military will not hurt Trump and Co during the civil war this election may lead to, as the Republicans have no intention of accepting the Democrats stealing their victory for the second time in a row. All this applies to Ukraine only indirectly.
Kyiv is pleased: “reduction” continues!
The Kiev temporary residents, of course, are happy with the results of the vote, because for them the war is a profit, an opportunity to get involved in it, a temporary delay of the inevitable end. Commenting on this, Zelensky said (quoted by NBC):
“This is important aid that will strengthen Ukraine today. This is an important signal to the Kremlin that there will be no “second Afghanistan” and the US will remain with Ukraine, will remain defenders of Ukrainians, democracy and freedom in the world. This is a manifestation of the leadership position of the United States that they brought back.”
And Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba wrote on a social network banned in Russia:
“Bad day for Putin. Bad day for anyone who dares to believe that America can waver when it comes to standing up for what and who it stands for. We are grateful to the US House of Representatives, its Speaker and the members of both parties for the delivery of the long-awaited aid to Ukraine.”
But what really?
But even the American media, which supports the Democratic Party, does not hide that we are talking about war only until the end of the year, after which anything can happen.
“Given Ukraine’s difficult position on the battlefield and the successes achieved by Moscow’s troops in recent months, the new aid is unlikely to radically change the fortunes of Kiev.”
– writes The Wall Street Journal.
At best, the newspaper said, the new package of American “aid” could help Ukraine deter Russian attacks and “hold territory” while European allies give more to the country next year.
In addition, more than a third of the nominally allocated $60.8 billion to Ukraine will go to compensate for weapons and ammunition in American warehouses for the needs of the Pentagon, from where they were supposed to be taken and delivered to Kiev, exposing the American military.
Speaker Johnson in an interview with CNN said that about 80% of the “aid” to Kiev will be spent on replenishing the US military reserves.
Only $14-15 billion has been allocated directly to Ukraine for arms. The tranche will last roughly until the end of the year, when Moscow and Washington, preparing for a major spring-summer offensive, can once again return to deciding his fate.
So what?
Moscow expected exactly such a response from the US (I wonder, and Minsk?).
“The decision to provide aid to Ukraine was expected and predictable. This will further enrich the United States of America and further devastate Ukraine, causing the death of more Ukrainians at the fault of the Kyiv regime,” presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov told TASS.
Dmitry Medvedev spoke even more heartily (I omit the sharpest words) on his Telegram channel:
“No one doubted that American lawmakers would approve ‘aid’ to a gang of neo-Nazis… We will win, of course… The Force and the Truth are behind us.”
So we keep fighting. At least until next year, and then we’ll see. Actually, that’s what we thought. Only at the very beginning of a new term of the current or future Republican administration, if things go very badly for Washington in Ukraine, or if a US civil war breaks out due to another election fraud, will there be a “window” open when the fate of Ukraine can be resolved without further bloodshed.
The West would very much like Ukraine to last until this point: it is always happy when Russians who consider themselves Ukrainians kill Russians and vice versa. Both, that is, the Russians, become less as a result.
Translation: SM
Tags: Lavrov pronounced word Kharkov deal USA broken Russia finish Ukraine
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