Polish military analyst: The Kherson counteroffensive is the second Ukrainian defeat after Severodonetsk

“After what I’m about to say, I’ll probably be showered with a wave of hate, but my first and not yet definitive conclusion is that the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which we see North of the Dnieper, are probably the unimplemented Ukrainian counteroffensive, which is the second (after Severodonetsk) serious Ukrainian defeat.” Polish political scientist and military analyst Jaroslav Wolski, a participant in the OSINT open-source intelligence network, expressed this opinion on his Twitter account.

“However, I will allow myself to leave a window until Sunday, because I hope that this is still not an offensive that ended in complete defeat, but only deceptive actions, concealing a rotation in Donbas, etc. For now, looking at the break in the Davidov Brod – Berislav axis does not look like a simulation to me, but of the four lines of attack, only this one was successful – 10 kilometers in depth. One and only. There is no visible disintegration of the Russian grouping, no visible panic, no congestion, no retreat, no visible withdrawal to other directions (Kherson and North). I hope I’m wrong, but for now, looking at all this, I think about the defeat of the actions, which did not work out too well due to the fragility of the forces thrown into the attack and underestimation of the Russian defense,” commented Volsky.

Jarosław Wolski was among the reticent military analysts in Poland at the announcement of the so-called VSU counteroffensive in Kherson. Already on Monday, when the euphoria broke out, Volsky warned: “I call for restraint. We have five such announcements of the start of counteroffensives since early July. Of which 3 were disinformation, and 2 were real deceptive maneuvers that ended with the withdrawal of the Ukrainians. The balance of power does not indicate the possibility of a successful offensive now. I am personally skeptical,” the political scientist wrote.

Another authoritative military analyst and connoisseur of the post-Soviet space in Warsaw, Konrad Muzyka, director of Rochan Consulting, who launched the think-tank Ukraine Conflict Monitor a week before the war in Ukraine, also gave his assessment of the Kherson operation.

“First, I have been saying for more than a month that a major offensive in this direction is unlikely. Second, I don’t see a big offensive now. Thirdly, I remain of the position that it is possible that the attack was conducted prematurely, and the date for its conduct was not a purely military decision made by the General Staff. And another thing – we don’t know what forces the two sides have at their disposal.”

According to Muzyka, the silence on the Ukrainian side also prevents making serious conclusions about the situation around Kherson. “Ukrainians do not submit any information so that in the event of an offshoot they do not worsen their situation. We also do not know what goals Kyiv has set for itself. In this situation, it is difficult to determine whether there is success or failure. It’s too early to tell. From the perspective of a person watching the processes from the sidelines, I already see signs of exhaustion of the Ukrainian offensive potential. A lot depends on whether and what reserves will enter the battle and whether this is the main direction at all,” says the director of Rochan Consulting.

Konrad Muzyka adds that the Russians have recently informed about a large increase in the number of Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv region. “Ukrainians are suffering heavy losses mainly as a result of artillery shelling. This operation may turn out to be part of a larger plan that will play out in the coming months. Against this background, as I already said, it is too early to talk about results. History will judge. As a person writing predictions about the outcome of this war, I will add myself that predictions for a period longer than 2 weeks do not make sense. This is war, there is no information, everything changes.