NYT: Ukraine’s success also depends on intelligence trust

In the summer when it started planning the counteroffensive, Kyiv has stepped up data sharing with US intelligence services, which allowed him to liberate significant territories in the northeastern part of the country in recent days. This is written by the New York Times, citing American officials. The publication did not specify what kind of information the parties exchanged.

“During the war, the United States provided Ukraine with information about command posts, ammunition depots and other key sites on Russian military lines,” The New York Times wrote.

Such real-time intelligence has allowed the Ukrainians to target Russian forces, to kill senior generals and force munitions supplies to be moved further from Russian front lines.

The New York Times recalls that US intelligence officials said that often had a better idea of ​​Russia’s military plans than Ukraine’s. Concerned that sharing their operational plans could expose their weaknesses and discourage continued American support, the Ukrainians have carefully guarded their operational plans.

Ukraine lost its counteroffensive strategy to the US

Officials say Ukrainian and Russian forces are approaching balance

The more intensive exchange allows including the American intelligence to provide more adequate information.

Apparently, however, during the development of the counteroffensive plan, the leadership in Kyiv decided that sharing more information with the US will help ensure greater assistance and successUS officials say.

Senior US officials declined to elaborate on how much Ukraine had shared its plans and how much and what advice the United States had offered, but one told the NYT that the Americans “constantly” discussed with Kyiv the waysby which Ukraine could slow down the Russian advance in the eastern part of the country.

Achievements in the north-eastern part of the country, incl the capture of Izum, a key railway junction, were the most important successes, that Ukraine has achieved so far, military observers estimate.

It is not yet clear how much strategic importance these successes will have, but there are signs that the current offensive may be the initial stage, which can significantly push back the Russian front linemilitary experts and former intelligence officials say.

“For several months, I thought Ukraine was going to push Russia back into line from February 23 until the end of the year” said retired Lt. Gen. Frederick Hodges, the former top US military commander in Europe, referring to the run-up to the Russian invasion. “I’ve been watching Russian logistics, and it just seems to me that they can’t handle it. Their morale and discipline and all their manpower issues — it’s just not sustainable for them to do what they were trying to do,” Hodges assessed.

According to him, the recent success of the Ukrainians in their quest to regain their lands in the southern and eastern parts of the country can develop fasterthan he had supposed and even create the conditions for an attempt to return to Crimea next year.

From ISW: Russian forces are disorganized, many become prisoners of war

Ukrainian forces aim to collapse the Russian positions around Izyum

And other experts agree that the trend may turn in Ukraine’s favor.

“The Ukrainian army’s counteroffensive is developing faster and gaining ground,” says Mick Mulroy, a former Pentagon official and CIA officer. “Now is the time for the Ukrainian military to use every opportunity it hasto reduce and destroy Russia’s combat capability.”

Current and former US officials praise the complexity of Ukrainian preparations for a counteroffensive. Ukraine’s decision to advertise its counteroffensive in the south before striking in the northeast is a standard deception technique used by US special operations forces training Ukrainians since the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

“These guys were trained for eight years by the special forces,” said Evelyn Farkas, the Pentagon’s Ukraine and Russia official in the Barack Obama administration.

Ukraine's Great Counteroffensive - Inspired by Sun Tzu

Ukraine’s Great Counteroffensive – Inspired by Sun Tzu

The ancient Chinese general exhorted commanders to launch direct or “orthodox” attacks combined with indirect or “unorthodox” attacks against the enemy army

Although the messages about the advance in the southern part of the country may have been something of a feint, officials say that hit matters, too. Even small successes in the south will make it difficult for Russian forces to capture the port city of Odessa, which is a goal of President Vladimir V. Putin.

However, it is still too early to determine whether the Ukrainian military can continue its advance.

The offensive will strain the Ukrainians, who are suffering from a shortage of supplies, especially artillery shells. Their army also suffered heavy losses, a going on offense is more difficult and harder to maintain than defense. Some US officials warn that the more successful Ukraine is in the next few days, the more Russia will look for ways to strike back.

British Intelligence on Putin's lies

British Intelligence on Putin’s lies

Russia has apparently withdrawn its units, but the fighting near Kupyansk and Izyum continues

But the new offensive showed how Russian forces are unable to overcome major problems, revealed in the early days of the conflict.

The Russian military continues to struggle with logistical problems. The Russian army is not able to increased its industrial base, to meet the demands of the war, sources told the NYT. Ukrainian air defenses still threaten Russian aircraft, preventing Moscow from using its military’s full potential.

Russia may also reconsider its decision not to carry out large-scale projects to build forces to resume the offensive in Ukraine, including mobilization. Vladimir Putin may also try to use different tactics in the new phase of the war, especially if he feels that Ukraine’s morale is getting a major boost from the successful counteroffensive.

It doesn’t turn off the Russians to resort to cyber attacks.

Georgy Dubinsky, Ukraine’s deputy minister of digital transformation, predicted that in the coming winter months, Russia will try again to attack the Ukrainian energy system by disrupting power transmission or shutting down pipelines.

“The next phase is that they will try to hit our energy and financial sectors,” Mr. Dubinsky said. “We’ve seen this scenario before.” In 2015, Russia attacked Ukraine’s energy grid. But this time, Ukraine expects Russia to use more targeted phishing attacks.

Zaporozhye NPP stopped completely

Zaporozhye NPP stopped completely

And the last block 6 is cooled

The article is in bulgaria

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