North Macedonia is starting an election marathon, important for Bulgaria

© Reuters

Our President Stevo,” reads one of Stevo Pendarovski’s numerous similar billboards near the City Shopping Center in the heart of Skopje. “Macedonia – proud again,” reads most of the posters of his main opponent, Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova. In Skopje, her face is served from billboards, but also from imposing screens mounted on buildings. Both she and her political force promise the return of past “pride.” Both he and his political force believe that their country cannot give up the future .

The “Past” may win the presidential elections in North Macedonia starting on Wednesday, the second round of which coincides with early parliamentary elections, and the promoted Davkova party VMRO-DPMNE may win both.

The outcome of the race may not be as predictable as most polls suggest, but it could be important for key steps such as the inclusion of Bulgarians in the constitution.

Pendarovski, who lost to Gheorghe Ivanov in 2014 but beat Siljanovska-Davkova in 2019, is trailing by several points in some polls. One of them, by the Center for Policy Research and Communications, meanwhile, puts the difference between the incumbent (whose support it measures at 16.8%) and his main opponent (20.4%) as close to statistical error.

In the same survey, just over 23% said they did not know who they would vote for, 18.2% – that they would not support anyone. Another poll gave Siljanovska-Davkova 35% in March, Pendarovski – 29%.

There will most likely be a runoff of the vote with a total of 7 contenders, since no one enjoys support close to 50%, and in the second round it will be necessary to win with more than 40% activity. It is unlikely that either of the two Albanian candidates will win, but they could tip the scales in favor of one candidate or the other. Sofia and Brussels will watch this closely.

“Bulgarian” question

Which of the following will become president is also important for Bulgaria. The runoff may affect the activity of the parliamentary elections and the support for the parties, and they – the results, which will shape the approach of the Macedonian parliament to the constitutional changes, including the inclusion of the Bulgarians (along with several other communities) in the basic law of the country.

And the question of the inclusion of Bulgarians in the constitution, included in the so-called French proposal (actually European, but expressed by France), divides the candidates along party lines. Pendarovsky supports them; assures that in his next mandate, Skopje will successfully close all negotiation chapters with the EU, saying that it will not be easy, but it will bring prosperity.

Even just to start negotiations, however, North Macedonia needs to change the constitution. Siljanovska-Davkova wants the effect of the amendments to be postponed until her country enters the EU, and accuses the SDSM of not only forgetting, but also trampling on national interests. The long delay in the constitutional procedure – which is expected to continue for months after the session on the subject was interrupted last August – is delaying the real start of Macedonia’s road to the bloc. Even Pendarovski’s opponent said last week that the changes in the preamble of the constitution (where the parts of nations, among which the Bulgarians will be included) are listed, should not turn it into a “telephone directory”.

The presidential candidates from the Albanian bloc, on the other hand, firmly support the constitutional changes. If Foreign Minister Buyar Osmani, as a spokesman for DUI, presents the constitutional changes as a red line of support for the next government, his main opponent, the leader of the Alliance of Albanians, Arban Taravari, said in a recent interview that if he wins, he would go to Brussels. to ask for guarantees that there will be no more demands on North Macedonia (on the contrary, if he loses, he told the Macedonian section of “Free Europe”, he leaves politics).

Even in words, however, such support is not evidenced by the other three candidates, who have an even smaller chance. “Let’s return the dignity of the nation”, reads, for example, a billboard of Prof. Bilyana Vankovska, the “Levitsa” candidate, meters from the tourist center of Ohrid.

general repetition

The campaign for the presidential vote began weeks before that for the parliamentary one, and this gave the parties and coalitions another platform in the pre-election race, which had unofficially heated up much earlier. Major political forces can test their ability to rally support two weeks before the parliamentary vote.

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1781292428286197870?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw