The challenges and opportunities of Bulgaria’s entry into the Eurozone were discussed at a forum in Sofia

The challenges and opportunities of the country’s entry into the Eurozone were discussed at the discussion “Economy of the Euro – development of industries and services and promotion of investments in the conditions of the transition to the Eurozone” in Sofia, organized by the Strategic Institute for National Policies and Ideas (SINPI).

Prof. Garabed Minasyan pointed out that the inclusion of an ill-prepared country in the Eurozone carries the risk of deepening the country’s economic problems, rather than their automatic alleviation. There is no automaticity, all countries must work themselves out, prepare themselves well enough to be equivalent members of the Eurozone, not some tailgaters, he said. According to him, the difficulties of the process could reflect on rising socio-economic tension, and in such cases a political party is found to “ride” the public discontent with unpredictable adverse consequences in the medium and even in the long term.

According to him, risks for Bulgaria related to the Eurozone are the country’s low degree of real convergence, weak innovation, strong social stratification. Among the examples he gave regarding the expectations for the acceleration of economic dynamics with the inclusion in the Eurozone are the average annual GDP growth rates. According to the data cited by Prof. Minasyan, in the period 2010-2015, the rates of economic growth of the member countries of the eurozone Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Slovakia plus Bulgaria were on average per country about 2.9 percent, and for the period 2015- 2022 sees a reduction in this rate to 2.7 percent. The countries in derogation – Poland, Romania, Hungary, the Czech Republic, for the period 2010-2015 have economic growth rates on average per country per year of 2.4 percent, and for the period 2015-2022 – growth of 3.3 percent. According to Minasyan, this is not accidental, and the countries in derogation have managed to use their opportunities to accelerate the pace of economic growth, while in other countries there is compliance with one or another requirement and some form of limitation and adaptation to the existing situation.

According to the financier Lubomir Karimanski, in addition to the political element, we must also consider the technical implementation of entry into the eurozone. In Bulgaria politically there may be a mood for acceptance into the Eurozone, most political parties may be of this opinion, but let’s see if we are technically ready for the Eurozone, he said. According to him, there is no information on how the technical business is being prepared, there is no discussion, for example, of how the seizure of the coins, which are over 10,600 tons, will take place, so that people can be informed. However, according to Karimanski, the important question is from Ch. of public finances. We must pay attention to whether we can fulfill everything that is currently planned for financing by the European programs, he pointed out. It is important to see how much the state uses the funds to invest and develop infrastructure, to improve productivity and to create conditions to be competitive, the financier said. Therefore, when we take a loan to be able to provide the social and pension system with a normative increase in income without making the connection that the income must pass through productivity, it means that the debts that we issue abroad and are realized primarily in the foreign market, monetize part of the deficit we have, he pointed out.

According to financier Levon Hampartzumyan, it is important how we will participate in the transformation of Europe. He added that it is better to be involved as part of the decision-making and members of the eurozone. The Eurozone has a lot of flaws, but show something better, what do you want, for example, the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party to determine the stability of the currency for us, Hampartzumyan asked. According to him, the euro is a very serious geopolitical anchor. Technologically, the graduate students who want to get us out of the euro, out of the eurozone, out of the EU, NATO, etc., technically will not manage to get us out of there. And when their populist promises die out, they will leave and we will sit in the Eurozone and that part of the world that most Bulgarians like, he said.

According to financier Lyubomir Datsov, discussing something for which we are in the final stage is absolutely pointless from a management point of view. Why did the rulers, who ruled until recently and declared that they wanted us to be in the Eurozone, not take a single real step, he pointed out. Joining Europe is a matter of policies and their implementation, not administrative regulations, as many people try to do, Datsov added. According to him, if we have any challenge, it is how to return to that boring balance of traditional policies, which work systematically on the basis of policies, and not on the basis of PR.