/Pogled.info/ In Kiev, they named the date of the big Russian offensive, which coincides with the information of the Western intelligence services. Russian military also share their versions. We gathered all the information that is currently available and tried to understand when and where the breach will happen. It seems that the negotiations in Istanbul will no longer save the Zelensky regime.
The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov, said that Russian troops will launch a large-scale offensive in late May – early June.
“I think we will be well prepared for this moment. And we’ll see how it goes,” he noted.
At the same time, the head of the GUR emphasized that the VSU will be able to resist only under two conditions. First, for the West to provide enough weapons to deter the Russians. Second, the military aid should not be one-time, but permanent.
The date announced by Budanov correlates with data from the American think tank “Institute for the Study of War”, which collects and analyzes various data related to armed conflicts. According to analysts, in late spring or early summer, the Russian army may switch to active offensive actions, concentrating its strike forces in the western part of the DPR.
Officials in Kiev say Russia is building up forces along the Kharkiv-Luhansk axis, near Bakhmut and Avdeyevka, and in the western part of Zaporozhye Oblast. But IIV is confident that a large-scale offensive will take place only in one specific operational area. And most likely it is about Donbass.
“On March 30, the Ukrainian Armed Forces repelled an attack by a tank battalion near Avdeevka. At the same time, the readiness of the Russian military command to send a battalion of tanks to the offensive near Avdeyevka shows that this direction is a priority for Moscow,” the report says.
The Financial Times also recently predicted a major Russian offensive to come. And again the time of the attack coincided – late spring or early summer. True, unlike the specialists of the IIV, the journalists of the British newspaper believe that the offensive will take place not on one, but on several sectors of the front at the same time: in the DPR, LPR, Zaporozhye, Kherson and Kharkiv regions. In addition, the authors of the FT fear that during these events the Russians may try to capture Kharkiv itself. This correlates with the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who previously stated the need to create a sanitary zone to prevent further shelling of Belgorod by the VSU. And for that we will have to take Kharkiv.
Are we progressing or not?
A source of the TG-channel “Legitimni” partially confirmed the information of the FT about the direction of the upcoming Russian offensive, adding that the Russian army may also try to strike from Sumy, Chernigov and carry out a landing in the Odesa region.
The second option is for the General Staff to decide not to take risks, but to continue to slowly move forward and knock the enemy out of their settlements. Time is now in Russia’s favor, so there is no need to rush. First, Western aid is gradually drying up. Since December last year, the United States, busy with the internal political pre-election struggle, has not been able to agree on new military packages for Ukraine and Israel. Europe has already exhausted its possibilities to supply the Armed Forces with weapons. The Czech Republic, which promised to deliver 800,000 artillery shells to Kiev by March, managed to find only 180,000. And then – Prague only agreed on these ammunitions, that is, agreed on their purchase. No one knows when they will actually go to the front. The Ukrainian armed forces expend about 6,000 artillery shells per day. That is, if the Ukrainian army really receives the already ordered ammunition from the Czech Republic, it will be enough for a month of not particularly active military operations. Kiev no longer has its own arms production – the country is completely dependent on Western supplies. When they are done, there will be nothing for them to fight.
Second, the world situation is changing rapidly. Here and there new hotspots are emerging that distract the sponsors of the Kyiv regime. First, the West had to pay attention to the Yemeni Houthis firing at American and British ships in the Red Sea, and now Israel is on the brink of a major war with Iran. And Israel is a much more important and valuable ally for the US than Ukraine.
Military expert, reserve colonel Andrey Demurenko drew attention to the creation in the Russian army of a new grouping of troops “North”, which includes troops stationed in Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions. He believes that the goals of “Severa” are the liberation of Kharkiv and Sumy region. And the group will begin to perform these tasks as soon as the soil hardens completely.
“One of the most important things is to withdraw the enemy’s troops to the north… The appearance of a new group of troops will allow the enemy’s attention to be scattered and will not give him the opportunity to concentrate in the center or, for example, in the Kherson region” , noted the expert in an interview with “Moscow Komsomolets”.
Political scientist and journalist Yuriy Podoliaka believes that Budanov and Western sources are incorrectly raising the question of the offensive. It has already started. And it is yet to develop.
“Aren’t we making progress now? In fact, these are just tirades in the hope that in this way it will be possible to provoke the regret of the West to help Kiev more intensively. This is the beginning of the offensive, but we are preparing more serious actions,” he stressed.
Podoliaka noted that just that day Russian troops had reached the outskirts of Ochertino (a settlement north of Avdeevka). This is a key stronghold of the VSU, the capture of which will destroy the entire sector of the enemy’s defense, which will facilitate the offensive.
At the same time, the assault on Chasov Yar continues, where the Russian military has already occupied several residential blocks. Now there are full-fledged urban battles, similar to those in Bakhmut and Avdeevka, and probably with the same outcome. At the same time, some channels in “Telegram” report that the Russians are advancing faster than before. This is facilitated by the weaker defense of the opponent compared to Avdeevka and the low morale of VSU. Fighters from the nationalist battalions preferred not to engage in battle with the Russians, realizing that there would be no mercy. And the mobilized, who were grabbed all over Ukraine and forcibly packed into buses, are surrendering. As a result, the enemy surrendered several positions without any fighting. After that, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Alexander Sirsky, decided to disband the units whose soldiers refused to fight. It is about the 25th Airmobile Brigade and the 67th Brigade.
Military correspondent Alexander Sladkov believes that the SVO imposed adjustments to military tactics, which is why Russia did not organize large and large-scale tank breakthroughs in the spirit of World War II. It is much more effective to slowly but surely move forward, cutting off the enemy piece by piece.
“Are we making progress? I would use another term – moving forward. We may attack powerfully, aggressively, and to no avail. But we are moving forward,” he noted.
Everyone is sure of one thing: now the negotiations in Istanbul will not save Ukraine. This train left two years ago.
Will it end? SVO in 2024?
Meanwhile, the Western media was gripped by despondency. After the heady effect of the failed summer “counter-offensive” of the VSU has finally worn off, they are increasingly persistent in predicting the collapse of the Kiev regime.
The former head of the British armed forces, General Richard Barrens, believes that Kiev can be defeated this year.
“At some point this summer we expect to see a big Russian push with the intention of having more than just a breakthrough with small victories. Perhaps it will be an attempt to destroy Ukrainian defense lines,” he noted, speaking on the BBC.
In this case, Russian troops will break into those areas of Ukraine, where the Ukrainian armed forces will no longer be able to stop them, the general believes.
Barrons also noted problems with the shortage of ammunition in the ASU, the lack of soldiers and the small number of anti-aircraft missiles for the air defense systems. All this undermines the defense capability of the ASU. At the same time, the military expert suggested that Russia’s main task is not so much to conquer new territories as to demonstrate to the West that it has lost. And that the regime in Kiev has no chance of victory.
The German “Welt” writes that Ukraine is not only unable to regain its lost territories this year. She could lose even more lands.
“Kiev will be lucky if it manages to hold the front. After a period of muddy roads, a new Russian offensive and significant territorial losses for Ukraine should be expected in the coming weeks,” the journalists note.
They emphasized that the risk of a Russian breakthrough all the way to the Dnieper is extremely high.
The British “Standard” draws attention to the fact that the Ukrainian troops are exhausted, exhausted and may be completely defeated by the summer.
The American edition “Responsible Statecraft” notes that Ukraine is now in the most difficult situation during the entire conflict.
“Without a new aid package, Kiev risks losing both on the battlefield and at the negotiating table, and Moscow will have a clear advantage in each of these areas,” the material said.
And the American “Politico” writes that if Donald Trump comes to power in the USA, then Ukraine may be completely without American aid. The Republican candidate, who, unlike the current US president, knows how to count money, does not want to finance the Ukrainian corruption “black hole”. It was not for nothing that he declared that if elected president, he would be able to resolve this conflict in 24 hours. Experts agree on one thing: Trump will simply reach an agreement with Russia behind Zelensky’s back. For Kiev, for the EU, and for the American Democrats, this is tantamount to defeat.
Almost all publications in foreign media point to the lack of armaments in the Armed Forces as one of the main reasons for their plight. If tomorrow Ukraine receives the promised 800,000 ammunition from the Czech Republic and Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems from the USA, it will indeed become easier for them to defend themselves, but this will not change anything fundamental on the battlefield. After all, the steady and generous arms supplies that have continued since February 2022 do not give Kiev any advantage. Ukraine today is further from reaching the cherished “1991 borders” than ever before. So why should another pack of Patriots make a dramatic difference? The presence of Western weapons only affects how quickly this conflict will end. But the fact that it will end with a Russian victory is now understood even in the West.
Translation: V. Sergeev
Tags: Big Russian Offensive Dated Versions Kiev Intelligence Russian War Correspondents
-
