Why is Ukraine suddenly losing long-defended positions?

Here’s a BBC analysis that tries to explain why the Ukrainian army has recently been losing long-held positions.

The Ukrainian army gets problems out of the blue. Defense of Avdeevkawhich had been successfully contained for several months, began to crack wheno Russian troops unexpectedly struck south of the Koksokhim plant.

The defense of Chasov Yar did not experience much difficulty in repelling flank attacks, while the Russian units suddenly they did not break through the shortest and seemingly difficult way to the “Canal” microdistrict.

Another complication occurred near the village of Ocheretino in the Avdeev direction. While the Ukrainian units were conducting counterattacks to the southeast near the village of Berdichi, in the neighboring area the enemy suddenly advanced by as much as five kilometers.

This happened last week, but now the capture of the center of the village by the Russians and their advance to the northern outskirts is confirmed by geolocation footage. And it seems that the lack of ammunition in the Ukrainian armed forces has nothing to do with it.

“It’s very complicated in Ocheretino today. They say a brigade has left its position without orders,” volunteer Tim Zlatkin wrote on Facebook. “Now the fighting continues in the center with the forces of another brigade, which had to be replaced and resumed. This is still not a breakthrough, but it will be difficult to level the front in the important Avdeev direction,” he added.

According to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) the Russian command plans to build on its success in this area, concentrating four brigades on the Berdichi-Novokalinovo line. According to the specialists, Russia sets three complementary tasks related to the further advance: to the west of the village of Berdichi; from Oceretino along the highway in the direction of Mirnograd; to the north in the direction of the village of Novokalinovo.

All these plans in the future are intended to provide access to the city of Pokrovsk and the administrative borders of the Donetsk region, according to ISW.

But the Russians are under pressure as another one is expected soon a large package of European military aid and resumption of supplies from the United Statesthe report said.

“The ability to balance artillery fire with the aggressor’s forces on the battlefield will be critical to the defenders’ ability to deprive Russian forces of the initiative and slow their pace of advance toward Avdeyevka,” ISW said.

But no amount of Western military aid can make up for command miscalculations and a lack of battlefield discipline, the BBC’s analysis concludes.