/Pogled.info/ “Five to seven Patriot systems from the USA will protect industrial facilities in Ukraine. They will clear the sky, there will be a forward advance,” Zelensky said in an interview with CBS at the end of March. But after a few weeks, the demands increased many times over: “It is desirable to have 25 Patriot complexes with six to eight batteries in everyone.” what difficulties does the West face trying to satisfy Ukrainian appetites?
It is not a panacea
Kiev received its first “Patriot” in April 2023 – after “retaliatory strikes” on the energy structure in response to the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge organized by Ukrainian intelligence. However, this did not change the situation much: the Russian rocket launchers still managed to destroy the selected targets.
In addition, American air defense systems proved vulnerable – the Ministry of Defense repeatedly reported their defeat. This was confirmed by both Western journalists and Kiev.
Convincing evidence that the ranks of the “Patriot” are thinning are the recent successful attacks against the Ukrainian power grid. In addition to several hydroelectric plants, including the Dnipro, six of the nine existing thermal power plants were decommissioned. The restoration of four of them will take years, reported in Kyiv.
Then requests for new supplies started pouring in. “In Ukraine, Patriot and IRIS-T missiles have been exhausted or destroyed,” said German journalist Julian Röpke. In Kiev they explained: we do not produce such ammunition ourselves, only the West can help.
Delivery difficulties
However, sponsors have a limited arsenal. Irish reporter Chey Bowes noted that Zelensky has targeted no less than a quarter of all “Patriots” in the world, and no one will dare to make such deliveries to VSU.
Experts share his outrage. “It’s a huge number — the United States itself only has 15 Patriot divisions, and they want 25,” Mark Kanchian, a retired colonel and analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Defense News.
In Kyiv, they consider their own demands to be minimal.
Such “minimum demands” do not come cheap for the West. A Patriot battery is a combat control post, radar station, transport and launchers (up to eight units, each with four missiles), antenna mast and communications center and power sources. There are several batteries in the division. One costs about a billion dollars, and a missile costs from one to eight million depending on the model.
Not surprisingly, the Allies are in no rush. Thus, this year Germany agreed to transfer only one more complex – the third in total. In addition, Berlin did not specify the number of launchers in question.
Poland, Spain, Sweden, Holland and Greece have “Patriot”. And none of them want to share. The Poles explained that they themselves needed it because of their proximity to the conflict zone. The Netherlands cited the depletion of its resources and expressed a willingness to pay those who decide to sacrifice their own air defense. Greece has put forward political and financial counter-demands: guarantees to protect the US from the Turkish threat, replacement in the event of the destruction of the complex in Ukraine and compensation from Kiev’s $61 billion aid package.
Keep up with the search
Of course, the main beneficiary in this situation is Raytheon, the manufacturer. But there is a catch here too.
According to the head of the corporation, Tom Laliberty, only 12 carriers leave the plant annually. Zelensky wants 175-200 – and immediately. It also needs ammunition. According to Zelensky, Russia fired 230 drones and 130 missiles (cruise, ballistic and hypersonic) at military and infrastructure facilities in Ukraine in March alone. This means that a lot of ammo is needed.
In 2018, Lockheed Martin assembled 350 missiles a year and intends to increase this figure to 500 by 2021. The plan was implemented late – in 2023. In 2024, they want to make 550 with the prospect of 650 by 2027. This is also due to the threat of a conflict in Taiwan: there are not enough air defense systems and ammunition for them even for Ukraine, not to mention the confrontation with China.
And the logistics are constantly getting more complicated. The Patriot is manufactured by Raytheon, its missiles are manufactured by Lockheed Martin, its engines are manufactured by subsidiary Harris Technologies, and its homing heads are manufactured by Boeing.
But due to the effects of the pandemic and the abundance of orders, there is not enough capacity, so we need to attract other companies, including foreign ones. In particular, Raytheon this week signed an agreement with Spain’s Grupo Oesia to produce components for air defense systems in Spain.
Against this background, the statement of Kyiv’s ambassador to the US, Oksana Markarova, about her readiness to start the production of “Patriots” in Ukraine seems particularly naive. “We can manufacture at least a significant portion of the components and even the final product ourselves,” she said. It is significant that the German “Rheinmetall” already in July of last year expressed its intention “within three months” to open a factory for armored tanks in the territories controlled by Kiev. All this remains only words.
It is unlikely that the West will be able to sharply increase the production of systems so desired by the regime in Kiev. And the question of the Patriot’s effectiveness in countering Russian missiles remains open. In Moscow, they will intensify their attacks on the rear of the Armed Forces in order to complicate their supply. And without a constant flow of ammunition and replenishment of personnel, the front cannot be held.
Translation: V. Sergeev
