The Russians may force the VSU to withdraw from tactical positions west of Avdeevka

Russian troops are stabilizing their advance northwest of Avdeyevka and could achieve further tactical successes that will force the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to withdraw from other key frontline positions to a more defensible line. This is according to a new report by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW)reports RBC-Ukraine.

Geolocation footage released on April 25 shows that Russian troops have advanced into the center of Solovyov (northwest of Avdeevka), having probably captured the entire territory of Novobakhmutovka on the night of April 24-25.

Russian forces have deployed roughly a division-sized combat force northwest of Avdeyevka and appear to be trying to extend their penetration of Ukrainian defenses in the area after the significant advance in Ocheretino.

These recent Russian advances northwest of Avdeevka have been relatively rapid but still minor. Since April 18, the Russians have advanced a maximum of five kilometers in depth.

Moscow’s forces continue offensive actions along the entire front line west of Avdeyevka.

The recent Russian offensive at Novobakhmutovka and Solovyovo extends the main Russian forces advancing northwest of Avdeyevka and gives them a more stable position from which to make wider inroads. However, this salient is approximately two kilometers wide and is still vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks as long as the Ukrainian Air Force stabilizes the tactical situation in the area.

Ocheretino, in particular, is at the crossroads between the Ukrainian defense line that Russian forces attacked after capturing Avdeyevka in mid-February 2024, and the next defense line to the west, which Russian sources describe as more heavily fortified.

The Russians could further stabilize their position northwest of Avdeevka and advance further west of Ocheretino, making it difficult for the VSU to hold positions on the Berdichi-Semyonovka-Umanskoe line.

Ukrainian commanders may decide to withdraw their troops further west if they recognize that Russia’s tactical advances in the region pose too much of a threat to their current positions.

Ukrainian troops withdrew from Avdeyevka to relatively poorly prepared defensive positions immediately west of the city after its capture by Russia in mid-February and continued to delay the advance of its forces. Positions further west would likely provide the VSU with similar or better opportunities to halt the Russian advance, and Moscow’s troops will likely need to maintain a relatively high tempo of offensive operations to put pressure on the next Ukrainian defensive positions. Russian forces will probably have to replenish and strengthen the attacking units northwest of Avdeyevka and will probably not be able to maintain the pace of offensive operations necessary for a rapid advance west of the Berdychi-Semyonovka-Umanskoye line.

“Russian forces are likely to continue to achieve tactical successes northwest of Avdiyevka, but it is unlikely that these successes will translate into significant operational penetration, let alone a breakdown of Ukrainian defenses west of Avdiyevka,” the analysts summarized in the report.