Still, Turner drove two hours from his home outside Milwaukee on a recent Tuesday to see Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump at a rally in Green Bay, Wis., as one of a contingent of young voters there who, according to some polls, opinion could become a growing and important demographic group for Trump, writes “Reuters”
For Democratic incumbent Joe Biden, who overwhelmingly won the youth vote in 2020, a decline in support among young voters could potentially dim his hopes for a second term.
Turner, who runs a dog-breeding business with his mother, voted for Trump in 2020. He supports Trump’s stance in support of oil drilling, his opposition to gun control — Turner owns several firearms — and his promise to deal with illegal immigration.
“I can’t think of a single thing that Trump has done that upset me while he was in office. And now that Biden is in office, there are countless things that I don’t agree with,” Turner said. to Reuters. “A lot of my friends are of the same opinion as me.” A March Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Americans aged 18-29 favoring Biden over Trump by just 3 percentage points, 29% to 26%, with the rest either favoring another candidate or not sure who, if anyone, will win their voice.
If the 77-year-old Trump hangs close to the 81-year-old Biden in that demographic until Election Day on Nov. 5, it would be a big victory compared to 2020, when Biden won the youth vote by 24 points. Biden’s age and his support for Israel in its war against Hamas in Gaza have fueled the erosion of his support among young voters at a time when he is also losing Latino voters.
There are also signs that young people are slowly warming to the Republican Party, despite Biden’s efforts to keep them on his side by trying to cancel student debt, expand access to housing and roll back restrictions on abortion rights. The share of Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 who identify as Republican has risen from 24 percent in 2016 to 26 percent in 2020 and 28 percent so far this year, a Reuters/Ipsos poll shows.
Despite a mix of cold winds, sleet and rain, about 3,000 Trump supporters lined up outside the Green Bay Convention Center on April 2 to catch a glimpse of Trump. The crowd was older as usual, but there were also hundreds of young people.
Reuters interviewed 20 people under the age of 30 to find out what their support is. The most commonly cited reason for supporting the former president was inflation and a sense that the economy is not working for them, highlighting that rising prices of everyday essentials are more significant to some than high stock prices and low unemployment during the Biden years.
“I make decent money and I can’t afford a house on the salary I’m getting now,” said Steve Wendt, 26, a security guard at a nearby hospital. “It’s time to get someone back in office who will lower our prices.” At the same time, the majority said they agreed with Trump’s reticence on helping Ukraine in its war with Russia, an isolationist stance that is at odds with Biden’s foreign policy agenda.
Colin Crego, 19, a history student, said the money spent abroad would be better used to tackle domestic problems such as drug addiction. “I really don’t like what we’re doing with Ukraine,” Crego said. “When I hear him (Trump) speak, he’s very patriotic, very ‘America First,’ and I like that.”
Of the 20 people Reuters interviewed, 15 cited inflation or other economic concerns as a reason they supported Trump, and a dozen said his plan to limit immigration was important to them.
All said they were unconcerned by the four criminal cases pending against Trump or the idea that his efforts to overturn the 2020 election make him a threat to democracy. One of them was black and the other 19 were white. Eight of them will be voting for president for the first time this year.
Caitlin Huenik, 20, said being a young Trump supporter can be difficult because left-leaning young people tend to frown on her views. But she said she’s seen changes among her peer group at the University of Wisconsin-Green Bay lately. “They’re more open to my way of thinking, and more and more of my friends are becoming Republicans,” she says.
Certainly, a group of young people willing to risk seeing Trump is not a representative sample of the broader electorate, and polls early in the cycle can be wrong. Young people vote less often than older Americans, making them particularly difficult to predict.
In addition, some opinion polls show that Biden maintains a significant lead among young people. An Economist/YouGov poll last week showed 51 percent of voters under 30 choosing Biden versus 32 percent for Trump, and according to the Harvard Youth Poll released Thursday, Biden’s lead over Trump among likely young voters is 19 points.
“Donald Trump is not winning the youth vote,” John Della Volpe, director of the Harvard study, told Reuters.
The Biden campaign is not sitting still. In March, it began buying $30 million worth of ads on digital platforms and announced a project to reach students and recruit volunteers at high schools and on college campuses. She works to inform younger people about the administration’s investments in green energy and efforts to protect abortion access.
“That’s why the campaign is working tirelessly to win the vote of young voters – investing earlier than ever and using every opportunity to connect with young voters,” said Yves Levenson, the campaign’s director of youth engagement.
The Trump campaign sees young people as a winnable demographic in 2024, a campaign adviser told reporters last month. He said the economy and conflicts abroad — Trump has often said Russia’s attack on Ukraine would not have happened under him — were key topics to talk about at that group.
“Like many Americans, young people can’t afford rent, gas or groceries and are struggling to buy a home because real wages have fallen sharply,” said Anna Kelly, spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee.
Kelly also pointed to the Harvard poll’s finding — that only 9 percent of young Americans think the U.S. is on the right track — as evidence that some are turning to Trump.
Among young voters, Trump appears to be doing better with men. According to the Harvard survey, Biden leads among young men by only 6 percentage points, which is 20 points less than 4 years ago. Trump’s deficit among women is 33 points, largely unchanged.
Like other young people Reuters met at the rally, Turner said Trump is attractive precisely because of the way he speaks, without concern for the political consequences. He said some of Trump’s dehumanizing remarks trouble him, but he believes — as Trump claims — that Biden is the real threat to America.
“Some of it is extreme,” Turner said of Trump’s speech. “But at the same time, if it means that the country will do phenomenally better … and still be a free country, I can accept that my feelings will be hurt in return.”
The text is published with abbreviations
Translation and editing by FrogNews
