If in February Russians bought currency for 103.2 billion rubles, then in March – already for 155.5 billion, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation states in its “Review of the risks of financial markets”.
Pressure on the ruble increased after the dollar broke above the 93.30 ruble level.
Therefore, this is an important technical factor that points to a decline in the influence of the ruble, noted BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov. The dollar is actively strengthening against the background of declining inflation in the United States and is also a defensive asset against the backdrop of geopolitical factors. Oil prices show high volatility in recent days, the expert adds.
The oil market was under multidirectional influence.
On the one hand, it is pressured by the strengthening of the dollar, and on the other hand, it is supported by the worsening situation in the Middle East, which increases the risk of interruption of oil supplies. For oil, I expect prices to continue to rise to $97.50. High oil prices should be good for the ruble, but it is under pressure and it will continue in the coming weeks, Vladislav Antonov is sure. Meanwhile, on April 30, the decree on the mandatory sale of export earnings expires. The document concerns 43 largest Russian companies – mostly oil and gas exporters. In fact, they were forbidden to leave the currency received for the goods in foreign accounts, forcing them to sell a certain amount on the domestic market.
The chief analyst of Neomarkets Oleg Kalmanovich recalls that in June 2022, after the removal of the requirement that Russian exporters sell 50% of revenue in foreign currency, the ruble exchange rate began to move freely.
The psychological limit of 100 rubles per dollar became a fairway for the price. There followed a two-fold increase in interest rates at the moment – from 7.5% to 16%, which is an additional damage to the ruble, Kalmanovich believes. It is important to understand that this toolkit of the Central Bank is an attempt to have a delayed effect to limit devaluation.
If foreign exchange controls on exporters are not extended and the Central Bank starts reducing the key rate in the second half of the year, then the pressure on the ruble will increase. Alexander Potavin, an analyst at Finam financial group, believes that the purchase of foreign currency by Russians before the summer holiday season could also be a negative factor.
Soon the ruble will weaken further and the exchange rate may rise to 98-102 rubles per dollar, predicts Alexander Potavin. In reality, on the black market, the dollar is bought for 110-130 rubles.
However, Alexander Schneiderman, head of sales at Alfa-Forex, predicts that the dollar and the Chinese yuan will appreciate even more against the ruble.
The yuan is now sold for 13-13.2 rubles, and until recently it was 11.5-12 rubles. The aforementioned changes in the ruble exchange rate open wide the door to corruption because illegal speculative transactions are increasing. Data on realized sales are being concealed, circumventing the sanctions against Russia. It is not clear where the realized profits in dollars and euros go. Doubts are that a significant part of such affairs take place in the milieu of the military, where it is difficult to monitor the movement of equipment, ammunition and weapons – in which direction they go, instead of at the front in Ukraine. Foreign sources and media investigations have already many times identified Russian weaponry in terrorist structures in the Middle East and African countries where Russian private military formations operate.
Millions of dollars are paid in bribes for exemption from military service, and if you are already in the army for not being sent to the front line where the casualties are catastrophic. This is revealed by the website verstka.media. The media also published a table with the prices of the various “services”. A medical document for an injury reaches up to 100,000 dollars (one million rubles).
The “Services” are provided for payment primarily in dollars or euros. This leads to the flourishing of the black market of Western currency.
