European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is still the clear favorite for a second term, but victory is not certain.
A new exciting game is being played in Brussels (mainly by politicians, diplomats and officials who criticize the head of the Commission) about who could get the post, if not Von der Leyen, Politico writes.
Below are the candidates being pitched either as real alternatives or as a way to put pressure on von der Leyen to get concessions from her.
This list does not include the leading candidates of the political parties competing against von der Leyen. Regardless of the so-called process of Spitzenkandidaten (the method of linking the election of the President of the Commission to the result of the European Parliament elections), the European People’s Party /EPP/ is unlikely to give up the Commission presidency if it remains the biggest political force in Brussels.
Mario Draghi
Draghi, 76, led a broad Italian coalition until it collapsed in 2022 and his name is often mentioned when international leadership positions become vacant. Until now, the former Italian Prime Minister and President of the European Central Bank has been mostly associated with the post of President of the European Council.
Draghi has now returned to the center of EU politics, working on an official Brussels plan to boost the bloc’s competitiveness, which he will present immediately after the European elections.
Why not? The Italian has no clear political affiliation, and it is difficult to understand why the EPP would hand over the influential post of Commission President to a man with no clear political allegiance.
Roberta Mezzola
The EPP is unlikely to give up the leadership of the Commission in the next mandate. However, if Von der Leyen does not get the necessary support, the other leading candidate of the EPP and the current president of the European Parliament could float to the surface. At the same time, she has shown leadership on foreign policy and was the first EU leader to visit Kiev since the Russian invasion in February 2022. Originally from Malta, Mezzola could prove to be a winner for southern Europe in the distribution of top posts. In an Instagram post last week, Metzola hugged Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk – a hint that she has support.
Why not? Malta is the smallest country in the EU both in terms of area and population. Furthermore, Mezzola does not have sufficient management experience, even in his home country. Her conservative stance on abortion was used against her early in her presidency.
Christine Lagarde
Because she’s French. Macron’s reluctance to back von der Leyen for the top job raises an obvious question: After five years of German rule and an even longer period in which Germans or Austrians held key posts, does Macron want a Frenchman to lead the Commission? As a former finance minister and current president of the European Central Bank, Lagarde will meet the senior executive experience requirements, with the added advantage of being a woman.
Why not? Again because she is French. (She’s also not very popular with her own employees.)
There is no indication that Lagarde wants to leave the ECB before the end of her eight-year term, nor even that the Elysée Palace is seriously considering putting her name forward. Since leaving the IMF, Lagarde’s name has come up during almost every French government reshuffle as a possible minister.
Klaus Johannis
The Romanian president is considered a tough guy and a favorite of European leaders, especially conservatives. Both Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz praised him for keeping his country in the pro-Western and pro-European camp after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Unlike Poland, Romania also strictly adheres to EU single market rules and does not unilaterally impose restrictions on Ukrainian grain, cementing Iohannis’ reputation as a pro-European team.
Many argue that it is time for an Eastern European to lead the EU. If that is the case, the German-speaking Johannis is in a good position as he comes from the same EPP political family as Von der Leyen. The EPP’s decision to hold its electoral congress in Bucharest also testifies to its authority among the group’s conservative leaders.
As his second term ends in December, Iohannis is eyeing a senior international post. He agreed last month to run as the next NATO chief, but it will be an uphill battle given the broad support for Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
Why not? Iohannis’s last-minute attempt to steal the NATO leadership role from Rutte has angered some Western European countries.
Andrey Plenkovich
Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković is also from the EPP and, as in the case of Iohannis, his appointment would respond to growing calls for Eastern Europe to get the top job. The election of a Croat as President of the Commission would also be a positive signal for the candidate EU members (Croatia is the last country to join the bloc). Plenkovic’s surprise announcement that he will head the list of MEP candidates for Croatia’s ruling HDZ party has led some to suspect that he wants to abandon domestic politics. His experience as Prime Minister since 2016 has certainly provided him with authority and opportunities for contacts with his colleagues from Europe.
Thierry Breton
Last year, Breton told Politico that he was a “plan B” candidate for the 2019 European commissioner post (he only got the post after the first choice, Sylvie Goulard, was dropped during parliamentary hearings). Breton strongly hinted that he was open to becoming a “Plan B” again if von der Leyen’s candidacy did not materialize. As a former French finance minister, Breton has senior executive experience and, although not from the EPP, leans towards the conservative party. His experience as a former chief executive who put industrial policy back on the Commission’s agenda gives him the authority to lead the EC.
Breton also became von der Leyen’s most prominent critic in the Brussels bubble. In a scandalous tweet after her nomination as the leading candidate of the EPP, Breton noted that the head of the Commission does not enjoy unanimous support in the EPP for a second term. He was also part of the group of commissioners who criticized her choice of Markus Pieper as Commissioner for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). Macron is believed to have been “furious” over the tweet about Von der Leyen.
Why not? Breton has perhaps more enemies than friends in the highest circles of the EU, including in the Commission and among many countries. Many question his achievements. The self-promotion irritated his colleagues at the Commission – most notably competition chief Margrethe Vestager, but also many of the civil servants he had to work with.
In a scathing (and anonymous!) article published in the French newspaper Atlantico, Breton was described as “the worst French commissioner in 30 years”, suggesting that he has rivals determined to undermine him. He is also not a member of the EPP, and the controversy surrounding his work as head of the French technology company Atos is seen as a serious problem for his possible confirmation by the European Parliament.
