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Last week’s news was undoubtedly greeted with relief in Kiev and grief in the Kremlin.
The US Congress finally broke its six-month gridlock and approved a new military aid package for Ukraine (as well as Israel and Taiwan). And the breakthrough came just days after EU leaders also pledged to provide even more support on top of the big aid packages they recently approved. What that will look like is still being determined, but Germany has already pledged another Patriot air defense system – one of the key technologies that has prevented Russia from gaining a decisive advantage – and has pressed other EU member states to help bolster air defenses of Ukraine.
Support is desperately needed. Ukraine has experienced a difficult few months. After a long-awaited military counter-offensive last year produced almost no results, the failure of the US to agree on another aid package has dealt a severe blow to morale. Ukraine’s munitions have dwindled as the Kremlin stepped up its missile attacks on the country’s industrial and energy infrastructure.
As the situation grew increasingly bleak for Ukraine, the Kremlin could claim a propaganda victory. Although many Russians want an end to the war, President Vladimir Putin can assure them that the West’s will is beginning to crumble. Not only are Russian munitions factories booming, but Donald Trump has a good chance of winning the US presidential election and returning to the White House early next year. Russian victory seemed imminent.
But let’s not forget – Putin has had to scale back his goals significantly since he launched his war of aggression in February 2022. He initially suggested that the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would be ousted within days and that the entire territory known as Ukraine would be returned to the bosom of Russia. The Russian armies were to march on Kiev, where they would be greeted as liberators.
It was a strategic error with few historical precedents. The Russian offensive soon stalled and Russian forces had to withdraw from key areas, such as those around Kiev. In the following months, they were also expelled from Kherson and Kharkiv region.
Ukraine’s dogged determination wasn’t the only thing the Kremlin underestimated. He also apparently failed to foresee that a broad coalition of Western nations would respond with comprehensive financial and military aid. By 2023, Russian forces were on the defensive and expectations were growing that the Ukrainians – armed with Western equipment – would repel the invaders.
When that didn’t happen, the conflict turned into a war of attrition. As Western resolve appeared to have weakened, Putin grew more confident after concluding that time was on his side. While he will no doubt have been preparing for new offensive operations, I suspect he was counting more on Trump coming to his aid than on his own strength.
But now the accounts are changing again. Opposing Trump’s isolationists and Putin appeasers, congressional Republicans, along with Democrats, approved the support Ukrainians were desperate for. Although it will take some time for the new supplies of ammunition and equipment to reach the front lines – where Russian forces are making gradual, albeit small, advances – the immediate political and psychological effect is significant. Ukraine’s chances of holding the front and surviving any new Russian attack this year have improved dramatically.
Suddenly, it is no longer so certain that time is on Putin’s side.
If this war has taught us anything so far, it’s that defense is easier than offense. In the medium to long term, production of artillery shells in Europe and the United States will most likely rival, if not surpass, that of Russia, which has had to rely on ammunition from North Korea. In addition, the continued development of Ukrainian long-range strike technologies will begin to yield significant results; and the latest mobilization in Ukraine will replenish some of its frontline combat forces and reserves. In short, Putin’s hope of a victory this year will evaporate. His war effort will once again take its downward trajectory.
But one hope will remain. The Kremlin will be desperate for its Mar-a-Lago savior – whom one Republican, according to press reports, has called the “Orange Jesus”.
Whether Trump’s return to the Oval Office will actually end the ordeal Putin has created for himself is another story. For now, Russia is again heading for failure in Ukraine.
The column “Analyses” presents different points of view, the opinions expressed do not necessarily coincide with the editorial position of “Dnevnik”.
