Posters at tram stops in Budapest show a slice of pizza next to the slogan “Why settle for less?” Hungarians are urged to think with their wallets and choose “More Europe”, writes “Bloomberg”
The message may seem unnecessary in a former communist country that has absorbed more than 100 billion euros since joining the European Union in 2004, among the highest levels of aid per capita. But the campaign reflects some worrying developments in a nation that has become the most critical test of the EU’s integrity.
After years of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán dominating public life with his criticism of the EU, the counteroffensive to reach out to ordinary citizens comes as polls show Hungarians are increasingly turning east. The risk is that a decline in public support for the EU could loosen the most important bulwark against Orbán’s self-styled illiberal leadership.
The latest semi-annual Eurobarometer survey conducted by the EU recorded a 12 percentage point drop in support for the bloc, the steepest decline of any of its 27 members.
A survey on relations with other countries for the center-left Nepszava newspaper found that a majority of Orban’s supporters – the largest political grouping – described themselves as “more sympathetic” to the Russians and Chinese and “less sympathetic” to the Americans and Ukrainians. By contrast, according to results released on April 17, Russians are the least popular among the wider population.
“This is extremely significant and frightening given how quickly attitudes are changing,” said Daniel Hegedus, a fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin. “It’s amazing how effective Orbán is in destroying Hungary’s pro-European attitude.
The UK’s departure from the EU in January 2020 split the bloc with the second-largest economy after a divisive referendum that the British government thought it could win. Yet a similar political incident in Hungary – albeit cheaper – would probably be more symbolic, given that it was once a model of the EU’s successful post-Cold War enlargement.
Along with Poland, Orbán is at loggerheads with Brussels over government control of democratic institutions such as the judiciary and the media. EU officials have also focused on corruption in Hungary, which now ranks at the bottom of member states in Transparency International’s rankings.
The EU is still blocking more than 28 billion euros in funding for Hungary because of its concerns, although Johannes Hahn, the budget commissioner, said in an interview on Thursday that about 13 billion euros could be unlocked in the coming weeks after a deal aimed at depoliticizing the courts.
Orbán has repeatedly rejected the idea that he intends to break Hungary from the EU. Leaving would not make sense, he said, given how intertwined the country is with the trading bloc. Almost four-fifths of its exports go to the borderless EU market, and its economy is supported by investment from German companies such as Mercedes-Benz Group AG and BMW AG.
Still, questions about the Hungarian prime minister’s European commitment — and more broadly his allegiance to the West — have raised doubts about Orbán’s endgame, especially given his actions and rhetoric since Russia invaded Ukraine.
The government raised the idea of a “Huxit” during the pandemic, when Finance Minister Mihaly Varga said EU membership could be “reviewed in a new perspective” after Hungary became a net contributor to the bloc’s budget, which he said could happened by 2030. Hegedus called this a “test bubble” to gauge public opinion about membership.
Orbán has since attacked the EU for trying to corner him financially as the economy and currency collapse. Dozens of broadcasters, newspapers and websites controlled by Orbán’s political machine are spreading the narrative that EU support for Ukraine is hurting Hungary.
The US scolded Hungary for its cynicism about the war in Ukraine
Because of Budapest’s call for a ceasefire
Government-sponsored billboards show a bomb with the words “sanctions” and accuse the EU of “ruining” us. Orbán refused arms aid to Ukraine, delayed NATO expansion while striking energy deals with Russia.
On his regular radio show, Orban said on March 31 that people may begin to question the EU’s “entire existence” because of its support for Ukraine. Two weeks later, he said withdrawing aid would end the war.
“Hungary was never really able to embrace EU values, and it was really about EU money,” said Agnes Urban, director of Mertek Media Monitor, a media watchdog in Budapest. “Now that the money isn’t flowing, add to that the propaganda and the two together have a powerful effect.”
Hungarians have remained broadly pro-European as Orbán courted Russia and China during his uninterrupted rule since 2010. But with Hungary facing a deepening recession and inflation exceeding 25%, that support is now collapsing – and most dramatically among young people, who are also flocking to an anti-NATO opposition party.
Overall EU support now stands at 39%, putting Hungary in the bottom fifth of the 27 EU member states along with the Czechs and Slovaks in the Eurobarometer survey. Even last year, 51% of Hungarians had a positive opinion of the EU. Positive attitudes towards the EU also fell sharply in Poland, down eight percentage points, although it was still at 55%.
European Commissioner Hahn, who will meet Orbán next week in Budapest, said he was concerned it would become harder to restore support. However, he does not think that Hungary’s membership in the EU is at stake. “People know how much they benefit from the EU,” he said in the interview. “Trust in European institutions is higher than in national parties.
In Brussels, the decline is largely attributed to Orbán’s grip on the media. Indeed, commuters in Budapest are used to seeing political billboards as part of Orbán’s attacks on what he sees as enemies of the state.
Hungarian-born investor and philanthropist George Soros, asylum seekers, the LGBTQ community and former European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker have been the targets of media campaigns. But the mood music has changed, Urban said.
“While the government’s propaganda used to be about fighting scapegoats, in the past year it has taken on a new dimension and is now aimed squarely at Hungary’s western allies,” she said. “This is a real geopolitical reversal.”
While the pro-European campaign is led by ALDE, the umbrella group for liberal parties in the EU, the US is also involved in the counter-offensive. Recent ads funded by the US embassy carry the slogan “Russians go home”, a rallying cry against the Soviet invasion of Hungary in 1956, superimposed on Russia’s current attack on Ukraine.
Because the government controls much of the media in Hungary, the U.S. will continue to reach out directly to Hungarians, an embassy spokesman in Budapest said. Cabinet Minister Gergely Gulyas said on April 12 that the billboards showed that the US was already waging a direct campaign in Hungary.
“Hungary is probably the only member state running an anti-European campaign, at least on this scale,” said Daniel Berg, a member of the opposition Momentum party who is helping to coordinate ALDE’s campaign. “That’s one of the reasons we wanted to launch this campaign – to say that this promised land outside the EU doesn’t exist.”
The Pope called for “creative efforts to build peace” in Ukraine
This position resonates with the Budapest line
