IN The military junta in Myanmar is losing the war as the rebellion gains strength, the Financial Times reports. (The video is archived.)
Just a year ago, such a turnaround seemed unthinkable. The junta held on to power with China’s support and pursued a policy of ethnic cleansing against the Rohingya Muslim minority.
Now things are completely different. The fall of one of Myanmar’s busiest border trading towns to rebel forces is putting further pressure on the military regime, which is fighting an unprecedented insurgency across the country.
Hundreds of soldiers surrendered in Myawaddy, a town on Myanmar’s southeastern border known as a trading hub for food, gems and other goods, while many others fled to neighboring Thailand.
Three years after the military coup, Myanmar’s junta faces its most serious threat from insurgents after losing control of strategic border regions near India, China, Bangladesh and now Thailand.
For now, the military holds the central parts of the country, but General Min Aung Hlaing’s grip on power is weakening and Myanmar’s neighbors are changing their policies toward the military and the rebels.
The military is suffering a humiliating series of defeats and the pressure on Min Aung Hlaing is immense.
Myawaddy is located on a main road connecting central Myanmar with Thailand.
Three years ago, a highly unpopular coup sparked nationwide protests and a civil disobedience movement. Thousands of civilians were killed as the junta responded with deadly force, with the UN accusing the military regime of war crimes.
A key moment came last October when a group of rebels called the Three Brotherhood Alliance mounted an offensive near the Chinese border, their success encouraging other rebels to attack strategic cities and sending the junta into retreat.
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The rebels represent Myanmar’s various ethnic minority groups. The Government of National Unity, a shadow government made up of lawmakers from the ousted administration of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, who is under house arrest, also backed the rebellion.
This month, a rebel drone struck the junta’s military headquarters and an air base in Nay Pyi Taw, the regime’s center of power.
The junta responded with indiscriminate airstrikes and shelling. The UN has reported that attacks on civilian targets have increased fivefold in the past five months.
Meanwhile, thousands of soldiers have deserted or been killed or wounded. The junta’s losses are estimated at around 30,000 people.
In February, the military forced young men and women to serve in the army for up to two years, prompting many to flee the country.
Armed rebel forces control strategic border areas, and neighboring countries that do not officially recognize the junta fear the conflict could spill over Myanmar’s borders.
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The junta now controls mainly central Myanmar, including the main cities of Naypyidaw, Yangon and Mandalay. It will be much more difficult for rebel forces to advance in the central region. Local rebels are not as experienced and well-armed as others who have been fighting the military for decades.
Nevertheless, the pressure on the regime throughout the country is there.
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Source: FT, Reuters
