Russia is planning a broad penetration of Ukrainian positions northwest of Avdeyevka

Russian troops are planning a broad penetration deep into Ukrainian positions northwest of Avdeevka in the Donetsk region. But their efforts may be limited by the transfer of military aid to Ukraine from the US and Western countries. This is stated in the latest report of the Washington-based “Institute for the Study of War” (ISW), reports RBC-Ukraine.

The Russians are noted to have concentrated a division-sized force on the Berdichi-Novokalinovo line northwest of Avdeevka, consisting primarily of four brigades from the Central Military District of the Russian Armed Forces.

Analysts suggest that these forces have three complementary goals:

advance west from Berdici;

advance to the village of Ocheretino;

advancing from Ocheretino to the west along road O0544 (Keramik-Mirnograd);

moving north towards the village of Novokalinovo.

It is noted that all these plans are aimed at supporting the Russian objective at the operational level, which is to reach the administrative border of the Donetsk region through access to the city of Pokrovsk.

The ISW report states that Russian offensive operations in these three areas north and northwest of Avdeyevka have resulted in the creation of three small salients along the front line, about seven kilometers long. But either is currently too narrow to serve as an effective starting point for further ground offensive operations that would allow a wide encirclement of the territory west of Avdiivka.

“The force composition, density and general geometry of the battlefield in this area indicate that Russian forces now hope to combine efforts from all three bridgeheads to create a wider breakthrough along the Berdychie-Novokalinovo line,” the report said.

At the same time, ISW notes, Russian troops do not have enough time to prepare for a wider breakthrough, as the arsenal of the Ukrainian armed forces will soon be replenished with military aid from Europe and the United States if the Senate approves the supplemental appropriations bill.

Analysts recall that EU High Commissioner Josep Borrell said on April 22 that the first deliveries of artillery ammunition at the initiative of the Czech Republic will arrive in Ukraine by the end of May – beginning of June.

“The ability to match the ratio of artillery fire to the forces of the aggressor on the battlefield will be critical to the ability of the Defense Forces to deprive Russian forces of the initiative and slow the pace of their advance on the Avdeyevsk direction,” the report said.

At the same time, it is noted that Russian troops are also increasing the pace of advance at the tactical level in other areas of the theater of operations, namely the Liman direction and west and southwest of Donetsk, with the aim of quickly consolidating the occupied territories.

According to ISW analysts, the Russian military command realizes that after the arrival of Western aid the “window” of offensive capabilities will close and is trying to consolidate offensive successes until the Ukrainian armed forces receive military assistance from partners.

Given the developments, the Institute for the Study of War predicts that in the coming weeks, Russian troops will continue to achieve tactical victories along the Berdichi-Novokalinovo line and other areas of the theater of operations, while awaiting the arrival of Western assistance.

“The now closing window of limited Ukrainian resources will most likely not allow Russian troops to turn tactical successes into operationally significant victories, although some of them are possible if Ukraine receives help from the West, which will allow Ukraine’s armed forces withstand future offensive operations that Russian troops are preparing,” the ISW report said.