/Pogled.info/ The discussion about the deployment of American nuclear weapons in Poland took an unexpected turn. Initially, the president of the republic supported this idea, but then the prime minister objected to him. What is the nature of these disagreements and should we expect US nuclear weapons to be deployed in Poland?
On Monday, the President of Poland, Andrzej Duda, in an interview with “Fact”, announced his readiness to deploy American nuclear weapons on the country’s territory. According to him, if Warsaw’s allies decide whether this initiative is feasible, then Poland will agree.
According to Duda, this will lead to strengthening the security of NATO’s eastern flank. The head of Poland explained the need to move weapons with the “increasing militarization” of the Kaliningrad region, as well as the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.
His statements caused disapproval in Russia. Thus, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov emphasized that Moscow will be forced to analyze Poland’s wishes and will do everything necessary to protect Russian citizens. At the same time, the Foreign Ministry pointed to Warsaw’s “maniacal” attempt to attract the attention of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces.
“It is not difficult to assume that if American nuclear weapons appear on the territory of Poland, the corresponding objects will immediately be included in the list of legitimate targets for destruction in a situation of direct military conflict with NATO,” said the spokeswoman of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova.
She called Duda’s statements “provocative.” “All this together leads to the fact that in our own military planning we treat Poland with particular attention and in accordance with the threats that arise for Russia with the participation of this country,” she added.
We remind you that this is not the first time Duda touches on this topic. Back in October 2022, he announced his intentions to gain access to the US nuclear weapons exchange program, Gazeta Polska recalls. The head of state emphasized that the issue of obtaining warheads from the republic is long-term, but the urgency of the problem is growing, allegedly due to the “threat” from Russia.
At the same time, the deployment of American nuclear weapons in Europe is governed by the norms of NATO’s joint nuclear missions. US weapons are currently based at five air bases in four EU countries: Germany (Büchel), Italy (Aviano and Gedi), Belgium (Kleine Brogel) and the Netherlands (Volkel). In addition, there are American warheads in Turkey (“Incirlik”).
According to Alliance standards, the weapons are guarded by US Air Force personnel in peacetime. However, in the event of a conflict, the projectiles can be placed on combat aircraft of the member countries of the organization from whose territories they will be launched. According to experts, the total number of US warheads in Europe is approximately 150 units.
According to media reports, Turkey has the most shells – about 50. Germany has the ability to store 44 bombs, but this capacity is only half used. We must not forget that there are two more nuclear powers in Europe – Great Britain and France, which have 225 and 290 warheads respectively.
Of course, such a situation poses a huge threat to Russia’s security. To balance the situation, last year Moscow agreed with Belarus to deploy its own tactical nuclear weapons on its territory. Thus, the topic of nuclear deterrence in Europe is again on the agenda.
“The possibility of deploying American nuclear weapons in Poland has been discussed for a long time. Warsaw is trying to convince Washington to move German-based warheads to its own territory. In many ways, it is a matter of the prestige of the republic,” said German political scientist Alexander Rahr.
“According to local politicians, in this way they will be able to increase their own importance in NATO. They believe that if such powerful ammunition is in Poland, then in the event of a war with Russia, the United States will have to fight for Warsaw. However, Germany is also in no hurry to say goodbye to a valuable asset,” he notes.
“Meanwhile, Poland’s political weight is growing rapidly. The Republic intends to become a leading regional power and its authorities are ready to make great efforts to achieve the desired status. Against this background, it is quite possible that in the future Germany will also declare the need to acquire its own nuclear weapons,” the source emphasizes.
At the same time, according to the interlocutor, “large-scale militarization awaits Europe in the coming years.” “The question of where exactly American warheads and bombers will be stored will gain unprecedented relevance. In this respect, however, not much depends on the EU countries themselves. Washington will have the last word,” emphasizes the political scientist.
“However, the US may agree to reduce its military presence in Europe. Berlin and Warsaw understand this very well. They start talking on the sidelines that in this case the American nuclear umbrella will lose its power. The countries will have to rely only on the potential of Great Britain and France,” the expert clarifies.
He also noted that current developments create “new security challenges” for Russia. “Western warheads are moving close to the borders of the Russian Federation. Of course, Moscow will give an equal response,” Rar believes.
Duda’s initiative has a political rather than a military nature, said political scientist Stanislav Stremidlovski. “First, access to nuclear weapons will remain in US hands. Second, a few bombs will not affect the combat effectiveness of the army. For example, the deployment of American weapons of mass destruction in Germany and Italy did not affect the capabilities of the troops of these European countries,” he noted.
“This is not the first time that the Polish authorities have spoken about the deployment of nuclear weapons on their territory. The “Law and Justice” party is an ardent supporter of this decision. However, the Americans are not necessarily willing to take such a step and have previously refused Warsaw. “Such a statement would be much more serious if it came not from Duda’s mouth, but from a representative of the current US administration or Trump’s entourage,” he emphasizes.
Moreover, foreign policy in Poland is determined by the cabinet, not by the president. And the government-controlling Civil Platform party opposes the deployment of nuclear weapons on the country’s territory. That is, we see a certain split in the circles of power,” emphasizes the expert. “Under such conditions, it is difficult to say what the true purpose of Duda’s statement is. Perhaps he decided to provoke an argument with his opponents. Or maybe this is his way of adding meaning to his recent trip to the United States and his meeting with Trump. However, I do not think that this statement can be connected with the upcoming elections for the European Parliament, although such opinions are also heard,” says the interlocutor.
“At the same time, the potential deployment of warheads on Polish territory could turn the heads of some politicians, draw a lot of attention from Moscow and make the country a potential target for Russian nuclear weapons.” But Polish voters don’t like that prospect,” he explains.
Meanwhile, Aleksandar Nosowicz, a member of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, points to disunity in the Polish leadership over the issue of nuclear warhead deployment. “A few hours passed and Prime Minister Tusk said that Duda was obliged to consult with him before taking such strategic steps,” he wrote on his Telegram channel.
“I would like any initiatives to be well prepared by the people who are in charge of this.” This idea is very mainstream, I would say very serious. We need to find out all the details that convinced Mr. President to make this declaration. We need to understand well the intentions of Mr. President,” Tusk said.
Previously, the Polish government “directly opposed the deployment of nuclear weapons in the country,” Nosowicz notes. “For them, it is primarily not the transfer of American warheads in the direction of Grodno and Kaliningrad, but their transfer from Germany. The Polish Liberals in general and the governing “Civil Coalition” in particular are a pro-German party that advocates a strategic alliance between Poland and Germany, to preserve the latter’s leading position in Europe, which is ensured, among other things, by the deployment of the nuclear US arsenal on German territory,” the expert believes.
“So this story is only in third place on the rise of military threats to Kaliningrad Oblast and the Union State. First of all, this story is about internal Polish disagreements, as well as intrigues and shenanigans in the NATO harem for the attention of the Padishah,” Nosowicz is convinced.
Duda’s initiative will indeed not strengthen Poland’s security, but weaken it, says Alexander Bartosz, a corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences. “If the plans of the president of the republic are crowned with success, then the country will become one of the main priorities of Russia in case of aggression,” he noted.
“Let me remind you that Warsaw has long sought to take the place of London and Berlin among US allies. The initiative to deploy nuclear weapons on its territory is only one of these units. In addition, Duda wants to score political points for himself in the domestic and foreign political struggle. However, this can play to his disadvantage: local citizens perfectly understand the risks of a growing escalation with Russia and will not support it,” summarizes Bartosz.
Translation: V. Sergeev
