/Pogled.info/ The authorities of the countries of the European Union should have listened to the farmers. After large-scale protests, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands refuse Ukrainian grain. Read about the inevitable consequences and what’s next?
They have no strength to endure
When Brussels removed tariffs on Kiev, European agricultural products became virtually uncompetitive. Of course, the farmers were outraged.
The EU has very strict rules for them, requiring large costs. This does not affect Ukrainians, which affects not only prices, but also quality. For example, the Slovaks found pesticide residues in imported grain, the French complained of bad chicken. In March 2022, due to martial law, the authorities in Kyiv canceled scheduled and unscheduled inspections, that is, there is simply no longer a control system there.
“By European standards, Ukrainian products are practically free,” notes Dmitry Zhuravlyov, scientific director of the Institute of Regional Issues.
As a result, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia refused to skip a grain and turned to the European Commission for support. She proposed a compromise: recognize the temporary domestic restrictions but maintain transit to the west. This did not suit everyone.
The Poles turned out to be the most militant: they poured grain from the wagons, blocked the checkpoints on the border with Ukraine and Lithuania, and even blocked the road to Germany.
Westwards
The situation is gradually getting out of control in other countries as well – France, Germany, Italy, Holland, Spain, Portugal. Markets are flooded with cheap imports, and governments are stripping farmers of tax breaks, reshaping the industry to meet “green standards” and cutting agricultural production.
The authorities had to react to the protests. In February, purchases of Ukrainian grain were sharply reduced. Romania – by 1.9 times, France – by 1.7, Bulgaria – by 1.6, the Netherlands – by 1.5, Italy – by a third, Spain – by 18 percent. In total – by 21 percent, up to two million tons.
“The rallies and demonstrations can escalate into large-scale riots and even civil war if people are not calmed down,” said independent industry analyst Leonid Khazanov. In addition, the escalation of hostilities in Ukraine is increasingly complicating exports and affecting their volume.
Dmitry Zhuravlev believes that Europeans have simply been “allowed” to buy less. “Apparently the purchases were made under US pressure. This is disadvantageous for the EU, it contradicts its very logic,” he claims. And he adds: Congressional approval of a new package of American aid to Kiev could serve as compensation for lost benefits – through orders from the European military-industrial complex.
Where does it all go?
Further developments depend largely on Washington and the results of elections, both in Europe and the US, analysts said.
In any case, the collapse of imports will negatively affect Ukraine. “Agriculture has traditionally been one of the main industries there. Now the chaos is intensifying: attacks on ports and terminals, power plants, the high price of gasoline and diesel fuel, difficulties with the export of grain will inevitably lead to the collapse of the agro-industry,” Khazanov believes.
Kyiv has practically no alternatives on the EU market. Some recall the intention to export to Africa. However, the solvency of many countries on the Black Continent is low, and transport is long and expensive. “This area can only be developed within the framework of the UN food aid program, but the costs will again fall on the shoulders of the Europeans,” Zhuravlev specifies.
He reminds: in fact, agriculture and energy (nuclear and hydroelectric plants continue to work) are the last things that support the Ukrainian economy. However, this is not enough. “The defense industry is half-dead, metallurgy is dying, as ore and coal have always been taken from Donbas,” the expert emphasizes.
Without cash injections, the government will have to turn on the printing press. Therefore, the EU’s refusal of grain will, at the very least, lead to an increase in inflation, which will greatly affect ordinary Ukrainians.
Translation: V. Sergeev
