The New York Times: Why This Small Ukrainian Hilltop Town Is Russia’s Next Big Target

Over the past 26 months, Russian forces have destroyed dozens of cities in Ukraine and forced millions from their homes. Severodonetsk. Bakhmut. Avdeevka. Little known to the world, these towns and villages became charred places where two armies clashed in blood for months before the Russians finally prevailed.

Now Russian forces have set their sights on Chasov Yar, a hilltop fortress in eastern Ukraine. The area of ​​Chasov Yar is only fifteen square kilometers, but if the Russians succeed in capturing it, they will gain control of the commanding heights. They will be able to target directly the main agglomeration of towns still under Kyiv’s control in the Donetsk region. This includes the headquarters of the Ukrainian Eastern Command in Kramatorsk.

In addition, Russian forces will be about 10 miles from Konstantinovka, the main supply hub for Ukrainian forces on much of the eastern front.

Chasov Yar is “the key” that “will open the gates to grueling and prolonged fighting,” confirmed Serhiy Grabsky, a military analyst and former colonel of the Ukrainian army.

Ukraine hopes renewed US military aid will allow it to begin stabilizing its shaky defense lines, but its soldiers are desperately short of almost everything from artillery and tank shells to air defense equipment and armored vehicles.

It will take weeks to change the dynamics on the front with significant arms deliveries, and Ukrainian officials warn that the Kremlin will try to use this opportunity to strike at Ukrainian defenses where it can.

Just this week, Russian forces took advantage of a gap in Ukrainian defenses near Avdeyevka and advanced about two miles to the village of Ocheretino, which is about 50 kilometers south of Chasov Yar.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he believed Russia planned to capture Chasov Yar in time for May 9, the holiday in Russia dedicated to the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany.

After the fall of Bakhmut to Russia, Ukraine used Chasov Yar to shell Russian troops in the open plains that surrounded it. They are also using the city as a springboard for an offensive to retake some of the villages around Bakhmut.

But when American aid slowed, then stopped altogether this year, the Russians regained much of the lost territory around Bakhmut and began to advance across the mined plains between Bakhmut and Chasov Yar.

According to both sides, the Russians had entrenched themselves in the woods near the eastern edge of the city. They are also trying to bypass Ukrainian troops, attacking through the villages of Bohdanovka in the north and Ivanovskoye in the south, Ukrainian military spokesman Nazar Voloshin said.

He estimates that between 20,000 and 25,000 Russian troops are involved in the offensive, and that the attacks are continuing “round the clock”. “We respond with FPV drones, but that’s not enough,” confirms Private Oksana, a drone operator fighting in Chasov Yar.

“The tactical situation is quite dynamic, complex and constantly changing,” Voloshin points out. “But the Ukrainian troops are receiving reinforcements and the defense is holding,” he added.

According to military analyst Grabsky, despite the incessant attacks, the Ukrainian defenders have some advantages.

The Donbas Canal, which separates a small residential area on the eastern edge of the city from the rest of Chasov Yar, is a natural barrier that could slow the advance of Russian forces. Grabsky says the Ukrainians had years to build strong fortifications in and around the city.

Russia used its growing air superiority to knock down almost all surviving structures and destroy the fortifications.

In recent months, as Ukraine’s air defenses have weakened, Russian pilots have become bolder in flying closer to the front line and Moscow has used its tactical air superiority.

British military intelligence this week said the “coordinated aerial bombardment” of Chasov Yar was a “tactic of the Avdeevka campaign” in which Russian warplanes paved the way for infantry attacks.

The Ukrainian Air Force said Russian planes dropped up to two dozen 1,000-kilogram bombs on Chasov Yar every day.

“In the last 24 hours alone, 100 mortar and artillery attacks were registered in this area, which is twice as many as the previous day,” the Ukrainian military spokesman claimed.

Colonel Mart Wendla, deputy chief of staff of the Estonian Defense Forces, said this week that Ukraine’s loss of Avdeevka and the Russian advance on Chasov Yar were clearly “related to the lack of ammunition and the willingness of the Russian side to risk using again tactical aviation”. Grabski claims it’s impossible to predict how the fight will unfold.

While the Ukrainians are no match for Russian firepower and Moscow remains ready to commit large numbers of troops, the fact that Ukrainian commanders are aware of the arrival of additional supplies may allow them to use reserves and withstand the attack .

The cities beyond Chasov Yar are not just important defensive bastions. They are home to hundreds of thousands of civilians, many of whom work in weapons factories.

If Chasov Yar falls, some of these settlements will be within range of Russian artillery. Russia has repeatedly shown what it can do when a populated area is within range of its large-caliber cannons—destroying local industry, destroying critical infrastructure, and rendering once-peaceful cities uninhabitable.

Control of Chasov Yar would put Konstantinovka, the main supply hub for Ukrainian troops in the east of the country, just a few kilometers down the road, at a distance that would allow Russian forces to hold it under fire.

The railway line in Kostantinivka is “key to the supply and support of the Ukrainian troops” in the eastern part of the country, Grabsky confirmed. This year, the Russians launched a missile attack on the main station, but the trains are still running.

The previous day, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Russia would step up strikes on Ukrainian logistics centers and warehouses in an attempt to delay the transfer of crucial Western military aid to the front line.

But even if Chasov Yar falls, the fighting afterward will be long and fierce and last for months, military analysts say.