The Russian military is increasing pressure along almost the entire front line, trying to seize as much territory as possible before Ukraine receives the aid promised by its Western partners. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (VSU) reported 114 direct combat engagements on the 792nd day since the start of the full-scale war. 75 air strikes were also carried out, and over 110 settlements were under artillery and mortar fire.
The data show that the hottest point is the direction around Avdiivka, where 30 attacks towards Ocheretine, Umaske, Nevelske and Berdici were repelled. Geolocated data shows progress of Russian units towards Solovyov and Novobakhmutivka, and this progress is relatively fast compared to previous days. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that Russia is stabilizing in this part of the front line and some tactical progress can be expected, forcing the Ukrainians to retreat.
This is exactly what happened around Ocheretyne – during the rotation of the Ukrainian units, the Russians were able to advance strongly and thus threaten the defense line in this direction. The capture of this settlement will make the line Berdychi – Semenivka – Umanske difficult to hold.
Russian military correspondents also reported the capture of Solovyov. For now, however, the Russians are far from their goal – Pokrovsk.
The Russian offensive continues in the direction of Bakhmut and the most desired and achievable goal in the near future – Chasov Yar. VSU reports that 26 attacks were repulsed near Bilokhorivka, Spirne, Ivanivske, Klishtievka, and Verkhnokamenske. Russian military analysts note that there is a slight delay in the assault because of the Ukrainian defensive lines.
According to the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies, there are indications that Russian units will attempt a frontal assault on the city. This is a risky move, as the Russians have lost some important positions on the flanks – around Ivanivske, and may allow a counterattack by the Ukrainians.
The expansion of the front line in this area will open the way for the Russians to Ukraine’s last line of defense in the Donetsk region.
The VSU also reports that 19 attacks were repulsed towards Novopavlivka – around the settlements of Krasnohorivka, Pobyeda, Novomykhailivka and Vodyane, as well as a significant increase in attacks around Liman – towards the settlements of Druzhelyuvka, Makievka, Torne, Torske and Serebryasko Forestry. In this area, 20 attacks by the Russian military were repulsed. According to Russian military correspondents, fighting is already taking place in the industrial zone of Krasnohorivka, but the saturation of defensive facilities in the region is delaying the advance.
After a pause that lasted for days, there was another assault in the direction of Kupyansk, where 10 attacks on Kislievka, Brestovka and Stelmakhivka were repulsed.
Attacks were more limited in Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.
According to ISW’s analysis, the success of the Russian offensive depends mainly on the aid that Ukraine can receive, as well as the increase and quality of combat power that the military can muster. Western support is already guaranteed for the coming months, and authorities have made changes to mobilization rules that could provide the needed military units, analysts added.
In the US, there are fears that the aid is insufficient
Politico’s sources, however, report that the White House fears that the military aid it provides to Kiev is insufficient to restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Washington immediately provided long-range ATACMS missiles, which Ukraine has been demanding for months, as well as projectiles and various air defense missiles.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has commented several times that his country will get what the military needs most urgently. The speed with which supplies arrive is also important, he added.
Politico reports that Washington is already preparing the next package, which will be worth a record 6 billion dollars. It includes a Patriot battery, the price of which is about 1 billion dollars, artillery shells, anti-drone devices, missiles of various types, etc.
According to Ukrainian analysts, some of these missiles are intended for F-16 aircraft and their arrival on the territory of Ukraine can be expected.
Can the Russian Air Defense Forces deal with ATACMS?
Assessments by ISW analysts indicate that the Russians are probably already prepared for the strikes that can be achieved with the new long-range missiles that the US is supplying to Ukraine. They point to possible targets, for example, airfields, but that would only take Russian warplanes away from the front line and would not stop the strikes that have brought great success to the Russian military and helped capture Avdiivka nearly a decade later.
According to The New York Times, however, Washington has given permission for these missiles to be used in Crimea. In Ukraine, they expect that with their help the Crimean bridge will be attacked. According to analysts in the country, this could be successful, even though Russia has strengthened its defenses, including deploying the new S-500 air defense systems.
The reason is that the Russian C systems are “non-contact” – they rely on the missile exploding in the target area, creating a cloud of fragments to destroy the target. But for the ATACMS missiles, this is not enough, and it is no coincidence that Moscow fears the new deliveries.
Business Insider notes that Ukraine will be able to hit important targets with its new missiles, and this may prompt Russia to change its tactics. At this stage, it is difficult to assess what type of ATACMS were sent to Kiev – with what range and type of warheads. The latest strike, said to have been carried out with these missiles, on air defense systems in occupied Crimea, showed that Ukrainian units had missiles with increased range and cluster warheads.
However, there may be other options to help Ukraine achieve other goals, the publication adds.
Ukraine continues infrastructure strikes in Russia despite US reluctance
Ukraine continues to strike critical infrastructure in Russia, even though Washington has made it clear on several occasions that it does not support this tactic. Two days ago, there were new strikes on Rosneft’s oil facilities in the Smolensk region – this time tanks, not refineries.
AFP sources from the Ukrainian administration noted that the attacks were against legitimate military targets. Drone attacks are already having a negative impact on the Russian fuel industry, according to Bloomberg oil refining hit an 11-month low in April. At the same time, these strikes actually increase Russian oil on the market – it is precisely the shortage concerns that lead the US to criticize this strategy.
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