From Nikola Yankov’s Facebook profile:
Yesterday we spoke with Asen Genov in Kontrakomentar about the real reasons why Bulgaria is constantly postponing the introduction of the euro. You can find a link to the video in the comments.
In summary:
– There is NO REASON why Bulgaria should not introduce the euro from January 1, 2025, just as there was no reason not to introduce it together with Croatia on January 1, 2023.
– The “problem with inflation” was invented by the PRs of Continuing the change and mass circulated in the media for months to be a convenient justification to the public for yet another postponement of our political decision.
– Democratic Bulgaria pretended not to understand what it was about, so as not to annoy Asen Vassilev. And he accepted the support of the “problem with inflation” as the reason for the postponement. Regrettably.
– Inflation in Bulgaria is almost within the Maastricht criteria, and the tendency is to fall further, so there are enough arguments for the country to be admitted to the Eurozone at the beginning of next year, IF the government wants. Croatia was admitted with a violation of the budget deficit criterion. But Croatian politicians convinced the Eurogroup countries to accept them. Because for Croatia this was really – and not just in words – a national super priority.
– The previous regular government did absolutely nothing to advance the process of the country joining the Eurozone. Absolutely nothing. The verbally declared “national strategic goal” turned out to be a hypocritical operation to catch pro-European voters. Asen Vassilev was against the country’s entry into the Eurozone in 2021, when, at his insistence as finance minister, the caretaker government unilaterally abandoned the approved road map for the accession of Bulgaria and Croatia on January 1, 2023. Then Vassilev changed his pro forma public position to make the coalition with DB. But his inner conviction seems to have remained the same – against the introduction of the euro in Bulgaria. For him, the Maastricht criteria for budget deficit and debt have always been a problem.
– Bulgaria’s pro-inflationary budget policy over the past three years, determined almost single-handedly by the “Super Minister” Asen Vassilev with the tacit support of the DB, did not show a desire for the country to join the Eurozone, quite the opposite. Politicians are known by actions, not words. PP were initially against it, and Democratic Bulgaria simply got scared after signing the referendum on Revival and decided not to insist.
– There is no opposition to the admission of Bulgaria into the Eurozone by the Eurogroup or the ECB. No one said that Bulgaria should not adopt the euro at the beginning of 2025. I repeat – no one. This is exclusively our own, internal Bulgarian support, aimed at justifying yet another postponement. There is no need to postpone the date ourselves, there is no need to ask for any “extraordinary reports” from the European Commission at an unknown date. We just URGENTLY need to start to finally do the political and diplomatic work of preparing for the vote on our admission towards the end of the year, and in the meantime make sure we get a good report from the EC and ECB in June. Each new postponement exposes us to a variety of new and hard-to-predict risks related to international political and economic factors – an example of this was Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2022, after we postponed ourselves the first time in 2021. The world is change quickly. If we ourselves continue to stand with one foot outside the EU, there is a risk that Bulgaria will never complete its European integration. And non-entry or entry into the Eurozone affects politically and our chances of full Schengen membership.
– The “train” has not yet been released and there is no reason for Bulgaria to abandon the date of January 1, 2025. The fact that the government is official does not mean that it should not do its job. But vigorous actions are needed, not just words. At a minimum:
1) The prime minister and the finance minister should immediately make a joint public statement confirming the country’s determination to join on January 1, 2025. This will be an important signal for the Eurogroup countries, the ECB and the EC. The statement of the governor of the BNB about a possible postponement of the date from this week is not helpful and should be refuted immediately.
2) A national person responsible for this process should be urgently appointed (ideally with the rank of a minister, but if that is not possible, it can also be an adviser to the prime minister, a special ambassador or a deputy minister) and talks should be started immediately with the countries of the Eurogroup to ensure of their support in the vote to admit the country to the Eurozone, and with the EC and the ECB to agree on the text of the compliance report that will come out in less than two months.
The third consecutive self-postponement of Bulgaria’s membership in the Eurozone is due only to a lack of political will or direct resistance from the people who will rule the country until soon, and not to objective or external factors. We keep shooting ourselves in the foot. The failure of this supposedly national over-priority is actually a much worse thing than triggering early elections. And it is good that the people responsible for this failure are no longer in management.
If you find time for the video – enjoy watching!
