There is one clear question that must be resolved in the upcoming elections: do Bulgarians want to be ruled (again) by Borisov and Peevski. Over the past four years, the answers to this question have been negative: GERB and DPS have not had the opportunity to govern either alone or with a partner of their choice. Under the Denkov government, they had to work on the PP-DB program and support a cabinet that was not chosen by them. It is true that they somehow managed to co-opt ministers in this cabinet – such as the internal Kalin Stoyanov, but they had to generally comply with the personnel decisions of PP-DB.
Back to “stability”?
Now GERB and DPS offer the citizens another formula – they should be the leaders, they should appoint the ministers and determine the government’s policy, they should choose suitable partners for a possible coalition. In fact, the elections in June will be a question for the Bulgarians whether they want to return to the “stability” of more than three years ago, when GERB and DPS ruled through a hidden coalition in the “Borisov 3” cabinet (with the help of convenient nationalists). Now just the GERB-DPS coalition would be official.
Is it good and for whom would it be good for Bulgaria to return to the 2017-2020 period? In fact, this is the substantive debate that should be held in the election campaign. Here are the most important parameters by which the controls can be compared:
Fiscal policy
The biggest political change in the last three years has been the shift in fiscal policy. In the previous decade, GERB followed the “Simeon Dyankov” model of reinsurance or “lean pizza”: an unambitious budget that results in surpluses being collected at the end of the year, which are then speedily distributed to companies as Christmas presents. Pensions were persistently low, as were incomes. Growth was moderate, but Bulgaria lagged significantly behind all other EU member states – both the Visegrad Four and Romania.
In the last three years, Asen Vassilev’s budgets have changed things. In them, revenues are not underestimated, but larger-scale social and infrastructural policies are planned in advance on a scale that is record for the country. As a result of this change, pensions were raised more than under all Boris governments. People’s incomes grew noticeably despite inflation, and in terms of purchasing power of these incomes, Bulgaria for the first time overtook Orban’s vaunted Hungary. The change in fiscal policy had a good effect on the catch-up, and so in three years the Bulgarian GDP jumped from 55% of the EU average to 64%. For the previous 11 years (2009-2020), the increase was from 35% to 55%: i.e. the acceleration of the catch-up over the past three years is starkly visible.
As a result of these processes, inequality began to fall in the country, which by 2020 had reached almost Turkish and Mexican values of over 40% according to the GINI coefficient. To date, there has been tangible progress on this indicator as well – it is 37% compared to an average of about 30% for the EU.
Schengen
Bulgaria was not admitted and would not be admitted to Schengen under the 2017-2020 administration. Certain countries (Netherlands, but not only) would not give the green light to Bulgaria, headed by Borisov and Peevski.
Although we are partially already in Schengen, the lifting of the remaining land restrictions will not be helped if Bulgaria administratively returns to 2017-2020.
The Eurozone
The fiscal policy shift of the last three years was carried out within the framework of the Maastricht debt and budget deficit requirements. There is a lot of speculation that Bulgaria has acquired a new debt of BGN 20 billion in three years. But the truth is that despite this, the debt is again below 25% of GDP – it’s just that the country’s opportunities are growing and it would be foolish not to use them by borrowing at low interest rates to fix its infrastructure, etc.
Therefore, from the point of view of financial stability, Bulgaria is now in a very good position to enter the Eurozone. The deficit is persistently below 3%, and reports from various organizations (IMF and credit agencies) are highly positive (albeit with some inevitable caveats).
The political decision of the GERB-DPS to go to the elections is the only factor that really slows down the country on its way to the euro. With inflation falling and likely to return within the Maastricht requirements by the end of the year, there is really no case for postponing membership. But just when we are on the final stretch, the next delays and sabotages begin.
Will the Borisov-Peevski administration be better in view of Bulgaria’s admission to the Eurozone? In principle, both GERB and DPS support our membership and work for it. But there are lobbies associated with them that have no interest in membership. In general, a government with “bright political figures” of GERB and DPS will not be accepted unequivocally in Europe and would rather be a negative in the process of the country’s integration into the Eurozone.
The fight against corruption
There is nothing to say here except “put him ashes”. The return to the 2017-2020 model will not be a simple “washing” of Borisov and Peevski, but a restoration of the “conquered state” in all its beauty. And with Glavchev, we can already see how the prosecutor’s office and services are starting to act in the “stick-umbrella” mode. The return of Borisov and Peevski would be combined with the rampant revanchism and “fight against corruption” against the PP-DB, which have already reached the level of moral perversion. After all, people from the “Magnitsky” list presenting themselves as victims and as fighters against corruption would not be possible in a country with a truly free media or at least more common sense.
The problem with the return to “normalcy” mantra of three years ago is that it can only work for people with very poor memories. To forget “Magnitsky”, to build highways again without tenders, to adjust all other tenders, to manage the prosecutor’s office according to Geshevski without Geshev, to circulate in the media claims that Bulgarians love corruption and have no idea what is clean and what is untouched – all this has been lived and no one will be delighted by it.
The question is, is this the best the country is capable of? Here, disappointed voters of both PP-DB and other parties will simply say: we know, but we just don’t want to vote anymore. These people rightly believe that three years after the mass protests of 2020, it is absurd to discuss again whether Peevski and Borisov can govern alone together. In the end, it really looks like doom and gloom for the country to deal with problems that can be seen as far away as Washington, London and Brussels, and maybe even from outer space with a light stare.
The disappointment is understandable, but after all, only days ago was the 300th anniversary of Kant’s birth. The philosopher for whom moral duty is dictated by human reason. This dictate—the only one with which the free man must comply—acknowledges disappointment, but does not accept it as a ground for action. Still, when there’s work to be done, it must be done, regardless of the failures and half-successes thus far.
There is such a philosopher – here is a good name for a party.
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This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial staff and DV as a whole.
“Deutsch Vele”
Tags: Bulgarians ruled Borisov Peevski
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