ISW: Kremlin urgently recruits more troops after defeats in Ukraine

Ukrainian forces counteroffensive operations continue in eastern Ukraine, putting increasing pressure on Russian positions and logistics lines in eastern Kharkiv, northern Luhansk and eastern Donetsk Oblast. Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces continued land operations southwest of Izyum, near Liman and on the east coast on the Oskil River, reportedly forcing Russian forces to withdraw from some areas in eastern Ukraine and reinforce others.

This is stated in the daily analysis of the situation in Ukraine by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Russian forces in eastern Ukraine likely to struggle to hold their defensive lines, if Ukrainian forces continue to advance east.

Kremlin responds to defeat around Kharkiv region, by doubling down on cryptomobilization instead of setting conditions for general mobilization. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov called on all federal subjects to start “self-mobilization” and not wait for the Kremlin to declare martial law.

Kadyrov stated that every federal entity must prove its willingness to help Russia, by recruiting at least 1,000 troops instead of giving speeches and holding fruitless public events. Several loyalist Russian governors publicly supported Kadyrov’s speech.

Kadyrov denies any retreat in Ukraine

He defines such news as “Western provocation”

The Russian-appointed head of occupied Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, announced the formation of two volunteer battalions on the peninsula in support of Kadyrov’s calls.

The defeat around Kharkiv region caused Kremlin to announce recruitment campaign across Russia. Kremlin officials and state media have not previously issued nationwide recruiting calls, instead tasking local officials and media to generate the force, seemingly on their own initiative. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov vaguely welcomed the creation of the battalions on July 12, while 47 loyal federal entities advertised and funded the campaign to recruit regional volunteer battalions.

Prominent Russian military blogger and supporter of general mobilization praised officials like Kadyrov for taking the campaign for recruitment by the inefficient Russian Ministry of Defense; this change in recruitment is likely to provide more support for the Kremlin among nationalist figures increasingly critical of the Russian Defense Ministry, even if the drive does not generate large numbers of combat-ready soldiers.

Ukrainian authorities report strikes in the center of Kharkiv

So far, there is no information about casualties or serious damage

The Kremlin has probably given up its efforts to shield select federal entities from campaigns for recruitment, which can increase social tensions. ISW previously reported that the Kremlin tried to shield Moscow residents from reports of the formation of the Moscow-based volunteer regiment Sobyanin Regiment.

Russian opposition publication The Insider noted that several groups in the republics of Buryatia, Kalmykia, Tiwa and Yakitia (Sakha Republic) have publicly opposed the Kremlin’s emphasis on ethnic recruitment.

Simonyan’s statement about “self-mobilization” sparked a flurry of negative comments among Russians calling on Russian oligarchs to pay and fight in the war.

The Kremlin has almost certainly drained much of the forces initially stationed at Russian bases in former Soviet states since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February, likely weakening Russian influence in those states. A Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) investigation reported on September 14 that the Russian military has already deployed approximately 1,500 Russian personnel from the Russian 201st military base in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion and plans to deploy an additional 600 personnel from facilities in Dushanbe and Bokhatar, a southern Tajik city, in the future.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in eastern Ukraine, creating conditions to penetrate deeper into the Russian rear in eastern Kharkiv and western Luhansk regions. A Russian source claims that Ukrainian forces have driven Russian forces out of Sosnove on the northern bank of the Siversky Donets River and are strengthening positions in the village.

The source also reported that Russian forces may have withdrawn from Studenok immediately west of Sosnove to avoid encirclement.

The front line in eastern Ukraine approached the borders of the LPR

The front line in eastern Ukraine approached the borders of the LPR

The Ukrainian counteroffensive continues

Official Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces had reinforced positions in Liman.


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Tags: ISW Kremlin urgently recruits troops defeats Ukraine